Why News/Talk Radio Hosts Must Guard Against Confirmation Bias

Develop your own thoughts, observations, and opinions. You are being paid to provide originality. People love your show because of you. Be that thought leader.

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We have heard this criticism of news/talk radio and TV news: the Democrats or Republicans are sending us talking points, and we are all following our master’s dictates like a clapping seal. There is a fair bit of reason why this criticism has been with us for some time — our opinions and observations all seem to sound the same. It’s not true, but it is easy to surmise it is.

In the waning days of the 2024 presidential campaign, there was a late poll in The Des Moines Register administered by “well-respected” pollster J. Ann Selzer. It showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, just days before the general election. I was living in Iowa at the time and received calls from friends of mine with diverse political viewpoints.

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My lefty friend said that this highly respected pollster was very well respected and that this was a perfect poll. My lefty buddy was convinced that the raw masculinity of Tim Walz was creating a ripple effect in the Midwest for Harris.

I decided to turn on MSNBC, currently referred to as MS NOW. And I heard several commentators on MS NOW refer to this as a perfect poll. I tend to think that I am a critical thinker. So I analyzed the poll and didn’t think the sample size was sufficient — 808 likely voters is minuscule. I told my lefty friend there was no sign of Iowa being in play. The Harris team hadn’t visited Iowa, and there was no local advertising for Harris/Walz.

Then I heard from my right-wing friends — “Is Iowa in play?” was the question. I looked at every other poll and just didn’t see it. I told everyone that Trump would win by 10 to 15 points. Trump won by 12 points. The conservative world referred to this poll as an outlier, but I thought the reaction was more knee-jerk and unanimous than an evaluation of the data.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer retired immediately following the election. The Des Moines Register was caught with its pants below its knees trying to explain how it had commissioned such a flawed poll.

Most news/talk hosts didn’t evaluate the actual poll data either. The people excited about the Harris/Walz landslide weren’t evaluating the data either. Everyone was repeating the synopsis of their red or blue team. The truth was not even discussed.

The War With Iran

For 47 years, we have heard from Democratic and Republican presidents that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Both parties kicked the can down the road. Right or wrong, Donald Trump felt that Iran was too close to a nuclear weapon and that it was time to act. Again, this policy is not new or politically exclusive to one party or another.

But Trump supporters and media allies have largely supported this move, while Democratic supporters and media allies have largely criticized Trump’s gambit. So, is he right? Was this well thought out? If Joe Biden had acted, would you be in support or against it, based on which team you identify with?

If you are a Trump supporter or a detractor, are you being honest about your view with your audience? There are Democrats who fear supporting Trump on anything, and Republicans who fear opposing him. This is not an excuse for dishonesty.

Your viewers and listeners are seeking your truthfulness.

Common Ground Still Exists

Being consistent is different from being predictable. There are shades of gray in many situations in the news — notice I didn’t say most.

There are awful things in the news that we should be able to agree on, whether we are Republicans or Democrats. Abuse of children should always be non-negotiable. Drive-by shootings are always bad.

I know these examples are obvious, but people agree on many things. Potholes should never exist for more than 24 hours. Puppet shows are overrated. Waffle House fights are an American treasure!

Escaping the Ideological Bubble

My thinking here is: don’t get trapped by the ideological bubble. There are thought leaders you may find a must-read, must-listen, or must-watch. This is natural — we enjoy how people think. But it is too easy to parrot the ideas of a person you admire.

If you come from a religious background, there may be a rabbi, priest, pastor, or other leader you really connect with. In religion, it is encouraged to follow the writings and sermons of your spiritual leader. Muslims are encouraged to memorize the Quran. You may follow the history of the exodus or the resurrection of Jesus.

These beliefs are sacred to the adherents of those faith traditions. Well, there is some confirmation bias here, too. If you read an opinion piece that makes sense to you, it is easy to repeat the great observation. Some hosts read the entire piece on the air, which I don’t find very authentic. Now, quoting a line is fine, but people don’t come to your radio show to be read to. They are coming for you.

Develop your own thoughts, observations, and opinions. You are being paid to provide originality. People love your show because of you. Be that thought leader. Some people may disagree with your conclusions, which is fair and healthy.

I bet you have disagreements with your partner or spouse — this is normal human behavior. Don’t be timid. Be real and original.

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Peter Thiele
Peter Thielehttps://barrettmedia.com
Peter Thiele is a weekly news/talk radio columnist for Barrett Media, and an experienced news/talk radio programmer. He currently serves as News/Talk Format Captain for Zimmer Communications. Prior to joining Zimmer, Peter held programming positions in New York City, San Francisco, Des Moines, Little Rock, Greenville, Hunstville, and Joplin. Peter has also worked as a host, account executive and producer in Minneapolis, and San Antonio. He can be found on Twitter at @PeterThiele.

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