I REALLY did not want to write about conference realignment in college football this week. I swear I didn’t.
Last week, I did a whole podcast about the media implications of the Big Ten adding USC and UCLA. On Tuesday, Ryan Brown wrote about how TV partners for the Pac-12 are feeling and today Arky Shea has a column on the way TV money has changed the sport. I think we have this whole thing pretty well-covered.
But I spent all day Tuesday reading about how the Pac-12 and Big 12 were in a race to respond to the Big Ten’s move and something stood out to me. It is probably because I live in North Carolina, but I couldn’t help but notice that the ACC was just standing still.
Maybe conference leadership feels like it is in a good position. That isn’t true. Maybe it believes that there is no move to be made that is a real difference-maker. That probably is true.
Whatever the reason, the inaction isn’t a good sign.
I keep coming back to a question. Where are we going exactly?
If Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC begat UCLA and USC going to the Big Ten, then it is fair to think no one was ever going to end their expansion at 16 teams. These were more likely the first moves in the race towards 20 to 24 team mega conferences. If that is the case, we’re merely waiting for the family to arrive before pulling the plug on the ACC.
School presidents and athletic directors in the Big 12 were convinced that ESPN helped facilitate Texas and OU moving to the network’s more valuable media property, the SEC. School presidents and athletic directors in the Pac-12 think the same thing about FOX’s relationship with the Big Ten.
There is no tangible proof that either is true, but come on. Both seem pretty likely right?
So let’s operate with the assumption that the next era of college football will be driven by what is best for TV networks and not the fans. As a collection of 15 schools (14 for football, where Notre Dame insists on not joining a conference) the ACC is an also-ran in terms of the top dogs. Broken up into individual properties though, the ACC has a few gems.
The Big Ten would certainly like to have Duke and North Carolina. It could also probably find room for Boston College or Pitt if needed. Plenty of fans on Twitter have made the leap and connected the football-first misfits (Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech) in the basketball-first ACC to the SEC. Maybe it could bring back Georgia Tech to round out a 20-team field.
I guess those are logical fits, but those are suggestions from a fan brain, not a business brain.
Let’s instead go back to the idea that the future of college football will be driven by what is best for the networks.
The ACC’s television rights cost ESPN about 80% of what they pay the SEC each year. So I think it is fair to say that the SEC is the property it will protect at all costs. Yes, it is a football conference, but some basketball pinache could make ESPN’s investment pay dividends year round.
Clemson is very good at football right now, but they are a Johnny-Come-Lately with a national footprint that stretches as far north as Greenville, South Carolina and as far south as Anderson, South Carolina. That’s a good joke. Look it up.
Anyway, ESPN’s college sports super weapon will need big, national brands. I wouldn’t be surprised if Greg Sankey has taken a phone call from Jimmy Pitaro or Burke Magnus asking how they would feel about it just meaning more to Duke and UNC. Sure, their football teams stink, but this isn’t about football. It is about money.
If the North Carolina government makes some kind of law that requires UNC and NC State to move together, then go get Kansas from the Big 12 to fill out the field of 20. Then the conference has Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M for football and Kentucky, Arkansas, Duke, UNC, and Kansas for basketball.
We already have reason to suspect TV networks are moving pieces around their proverbial college sports chess boards. If the race to two super conferences has already begun, ESPN doesn’t need to worry about teams bolting the ACC. The network just needs to make sure that the most valuable brands make their way to the SEC.
Maybe the ACC can compete with other conferences. It can’t compete with ESPN.
Demetri Ravanos is a columnist and features writer for Barrett Media. He is also the creator of The Sports Podcast Festival, and a previous host on the Chewing Clock and Media Noise podcasts. He occasionally fills in on stations across the Carolinas in addition to hosting Panthers and College Football podcasts. His radio resume includes stops at WAVH and WZEW in Mobile, AL, WBPT in Birmingham, AL and WBBB, WPTK and WDNC in Raleigh, NC.
You can find him on Twitter @DemetriRavanos or reach him by email at DemetriTheGreek@gmail.com.
