On the latest edition of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons discussed a couple of very interesting topics related to the NBA. If you are a regular listener to the podcast, you know it has been mentioned before, Simmons believes the NBA will expand soon and that the two markets will be Seattle and Las Vegas. “Expansion is definitely coming,” he said this week.
Simmons started doing calculations on what the expansion fees might bring should two teams be added. He estimates it could be as much as $9 billion total between two cities, which would see NBA owners each get a check for $300 million.
As for the upcoming media rights negotiations, Simmons also made some very strong points. “They’ve played it close to the vest, but I am pretty convinced that they’re going to go to a streamer in a way harder way than people realize,” he said. “And it’s for some of the reasons that we’ve talked about on this podcast before. You saw it with the NFL, with the Amazon Thursday Night Football, with Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV and YouTube. And then the Peacock game they had.”
Simmons says data is the main reason he sees the NBA going in this direction. “The secret sauce with this is they got an incredible amount of intel on their audience, on audience behavior, how long people watch, where those people are watching from, what ads they like. It’s a whole other level,” Simmons said.
“So, you compare it to having your games on CBS or TNT, or even like if they’re showing it on Max vs. showing it on Amazon or showing it on Google/YouTube. The amount of intelligence you get, you almost can’t put a price on. And for Adam Silver and the owners, like they know this. It would be irresponsible for them to not put at least a decent chunk of their games on one of these streamers. Because they’re not just getting the money from the streamer. They’re getting this relationship, they’re getting this advanced metrics on their audience, on viewerships, on how they should approach game presentation — just everything. There’s no way they’re not doing it.
“So, I actually think the media deal is going to be a little bigger than has been reported. because I think that anybody that’s gotten into the live sports stuff with football has been delighted by it. Right? It’s been great. Even Apple doing the MLS, they’ve been delighted by that. So, this is where it’s going, and I think the NBA likes to be on the forefront…of this stuff. So, the media deal’s going to be significant.”
Simmons does not anticipate TNT comes out a winner in what is ahead. “And If I had to bet, I think it’s going to be bad for TNT,” he said. “Because TNT is kind of the old school, past-tense way of doing this stuff. I know they’re trying to get in there in Max and they’re trying to belatedly do a whole bunch of stuf`f. They’re in that bundle with ESPN and Fox,” he said. “But you know — Amazon and Google/YouTube, it’s just a whole other animal for what they’re able to do. So we’ll see how it goes. But the point is, a lot of money’s coming.”
