Alex Sherman is an excellent reporter. He covers the sports media and sports business for CNBC. I really hope you read his story last week about the hand-wringing some executives in our industry are already doing about 2029. That’s the year the NFL has the chance to completely reset the market again on television rights.
Five years from now, the NFL can opt out of all of its TV deals except for the one with ESPN, which the league can opt out of one year later. According to Sherman, there is strategizing going on at the FOX, CBS, NBC, and Amazon offices, but in at least three of them, there is also some serious uncertainty.
The $111 billion the NFL got for its current media rights is staggering, but you don’t opt out of a deal like that if you aren’t sure you can get more, right?
Sherman points out that while it is unlikely, the NFL may be high enough on its own supply to abandon the reach of broadcast television in favor of whatever platform can give it the most money. Can broadcast networks and other traditional media companies compete with Amazon, Apple or Google if that is the case? Probably not.
If the NFL were to move off of free TV, or even off of traditional TV entirely, it would surely generate headlines. You can imagine the think pieces about the gouging of the American sports fan. They would be plentiful, but they wouldn’t exactly be true.
Sports fans are already being gouged. We’re propping up the whole pay TV industry. The NFL moving exclusively to a streaming service would only make that fact undeniable.
Think about the number of regional sports networks that have been moved off of basic cable packages in recent years. There are plenty of major markets where there is a premium to be paid if you want to watch the home team. Think about Disney’s now annual standoff with TV providers over carriage fees. Operators want the ability to gouge sports fans while offering everyone else a cheaper, skinnier bundle.
It’s why I sort of scoff at Chris Russo losing his mind over baseball and football games that are only available to people paying a monthly subscription to Amazon or Peacock or whatever streaming service has the games. Sports fans are always the ones to pick up the tab. At least the streaming services are honest about it.
The future is going to hurt for sports fans. Models like NFL Sunday Ticket are a nice luxury right now. Why is it so crazy to think it will be the only option for watching games in the future? And this is capitalism. If one league does this and has success, others will follow.
That could mean that you need a subscription to the NFL’s platform for football season, the NBA’s platform for basketball season and Major League Baseball’s platform for baseball season. Are you a college football fan? Conferences can’t agree or work together on anything! Can you imagine how many different bills you’re going to have to pay in order to see all the games you used to?
Europeans already deal with this. Just look up how much it costs and how complicated it is to watch Premier League matches if you’re in England.
Although I don’t think there is anything good on cable TV anymore, I still keep my Hulu + Live TV subscription because the cable bundle is still the most cost-effective way to follow sports. It’s also the most user-friendly way to follow sports, but that isn’t even considered by leagues or their rights holders anymore. It’s impossible to flip quickly from a game that is a Peacock exclusive to one on ESPN+, but that’s your problem, not theirs.
No business in a capitalistic society gets to the top of their respective category to rest on their laurels. Being number one isn’t good enough, but once you’re there, there is only one real option. You push the margins as far as they can go.
It’s not just sports. The NFL reigns across American television. All that is left to do is to see just how much more money the league can make.
We have always assumed access would be the governor. The NFL likes the power that comes from its domination of television, but maybe that won’t matter so much by 2029. Maybe getting the number on those checks as high as possible is the league’s only goal.
If that’s the case, we’re all going to be paying for it. It’s nothing new. It will just be all out in the open.
Demetri Ravanos is a columnist and features writer for Barrett Media. He is also the creator of The Sports Podcast Festival, and a previous host on the Chewing Clock and Media Noise podcasts. He occasionally fills in on stations across the Carolinas in addition to hosting Panthers and College Football podcasts. His radio resume includes stops at WAVH and WZEW in Mobile, AL, WBPT in Birmingham, AL and WBBB, WPTK and WDNC in Raleigh, NC.
You can find him on Twitter @DemetriRavanos or reach him by email at DemetriTheGreek@gmail.com.
