The NFL is set to cash in as it negotiates its next TV rights deals. In a column for MediaPost, Wayne Friedman writes that research firm MoffettNathanson projects rights fees for multi-year deals could jump from $5.6 billion to as much as $8.8 billion for networks looking to get or stay in business with the league.
Packages controlled by three major broadcast networks (AFC games on Sundays on CBS, NFC games on Sundays on FOX, and Sunday Night Football on NBC) are expected to see a 75% jump in cost. ESPN could take a less drastic hit. The rights for Monday Night Football are expected to rise by only 26%.
The real wildcard in this next round of negotiations will be Thursday Night Football. The package is currently on FOX, but the network isn’t expected to try to retain it. If it were to hit the open market, rights for Thursday Night Football could see a 61% jump according to MoffetNathanson.
Professional football is one of television’s most reliable performers. Event programming is the only thing networks can count on to deliver immediate ratings in a world controlled by DVRs and streaming.
One wrinkle not addressed in the MoffetNathanson study is the return of sports after the Covid-19 Pandemic shut down most of American life. Ratings for most sporting events have been down. While it is easy to see that the shift in the sports calendar and hockey and basketball playoff games being played on weekday afternoons clearly have an effect on viewership, they are still raw, indisputable numbers that say Americans are less interested in sports than they were before.
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landon Mook Terry
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