Welcome to “Unnamed NFL Source” Season. You can tell spring is in the air when the grass gets greener, the flowers start to bloom and the unarmed NFL source tells us an NFL prospect isn’t what everyone thinks he is. It happens every year and is often disseminated to the public by an NFL Draft analyst.
You know the game: Player A has injury concerns among many teams, Player B is a locker room concern, Player C made a three on his Wonderlic.
It is as predictable as the sun rising, representatives having to refute a report about their player. This, of course, is always followed by the breathless speculation that the unnamed source is the NFL team that wants to draft said player so they are leaking the harmful information in hopes he drops to their spot.
The question I have pondered, and I suspect I am not alone, is this: Am I getting real information from mock drafts or is this all just for entertainment purposes only? The only way I knew to get the answer to that question was to actually ask people from the NFL.
Over my years of sitting in college football press boxes, I have built relationships with many NFL scouts and members of front offices. As you might imagine, me being based in Birmingham, more than a few NFL scouts have passed through watching Alabama and Auburn players. One thing I have found is that many of those scouts like to know what you might have heard about the off the field activity of those players. It is a business that relies on gaining every piece of available information. The question is how do the draft analysts fit into that?
Most of the people I talked with in the NFL asked to be kept anonymous for one of two reasons – either their franchise prohibits them from speaking on this subject or they didn’t want to damage any relationship with any draft analyst. From talking to NFL people, it is abundantly clear three names are at the top of the list of respected names: The NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay.
For starters, Daniel Jeremiah’s time as a scout in the NFL gets him massive bonus points from NFL people.
“Since he was in the league and worked for several teams, he’s more believable,” one member of an NFL front office told me, “Teams know DJ watches tape like a scout does.”
ESPN’s Todd McShay, like Jeremiah, is more “new school” but his opinion still carries weight.
“Todd McShay is kind of the next generation,” a longtime NFL scout says, “He’s a sideline reporter during the season so he sees these guys up close.” It is clear that the time McShay spends in the college facilities talking to coaches and players goes a long way to establishing credibility with the NFL.
There is no doubt the godfather of NFL draft analysts is ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr.
“Probably for this generation, he is still the most respected because he’s been doing it the longest,” a 20 year NFL veteran says. “He’s the reason a lot of people I work with today are in scouting because they watched him on TV.”
Yes, you read that correctly, a lot of NFL scouts are there because of Mel Kiper. “A lot of the guys that are doing this now didn’t even play football,” the NFL front office veteran adds. “They are just fans or draft fans and a lot of that emanated from watching Mel on TV.”
So, do these mock draft guys matter? In short, the answer is a resounding yes. “All the teams are aware of these guys’ mock drafts,” the two plus decade NFL front office vet says, “They know they talk to a lot of teams.” From a seasoned NFL scout: “If, all of a sudden, a guy shows up on one of their mocks that hasn’t been there before, it is like ‘someone has told them this’ so we better pay attention.”
So, what is the benefit of being honest with a draft analyst? It is very much a give and take. NFL executives know that, if they will give a nugget or two of information to a well respected draft analyst, they’ll get something back in return. The NFL people I talked to stressed how important this was to confirming their draft board or assuring them the rest of the league is just as confused on some guys as they are.
While this might be entertaining to us, this is real information to many people in the NFL. It is clear that the well respected guys carry a lot of weight for the 32 teams in the NFL. The good ones have stood the test of time.
It has been almost 30 years since Colts General Manager Bill Tobin said his mailman knew more about the draft than Mel Kiper. Tobin held that job two more drafts, Kiper Is in year 30 with ESPN. Like Tobin’s mailman, the guys at the top of the NFL Mock Draft game just keep delivering.
Ryan Brown is a columnist for Barrett Sports Media, and a co-host of the popular sports audio/video show ‘The Next Round’ formerly known as JOX Roundtable, which previously aired on WJOX in Birmingham. You can find him on Twitter @RyanBrownLive and follow his show @NextRoundLive.
