I may have missed George Kliavkoff’s 2023 NFL preview but, please, someone tell me he didn’t pick the Miami Dolphins to win it all. In case you don’t know, Kliavkoff is the wet behind the ears commissioner of the Pac-12 and his last two weeks have not been good. For his one year anniversary gift, USC and UCLA gave him the news they were leaving for the Big Ten – while he was on vacation. The following weeks of his tenure have been anything but smooth.
A couple of weeks ago, Kliavkoff stood on the stage at Pac-12 Media Days in Las Vegas and told the assembled college football media that expansion was on hold and the Pac-12 would lose no more teams. Less than a week later Colorado, unequivocally a Pac-12 team, announced their departure for the Big 12. His tenure can only be defined by him constantly being blindsided by major news from his own schools.
One can only hope Kliavkoff didn’t drop ten large on the roulette wheel while he was in Vegas, because there’s no way his number came up.
This all leaves the future of the Pac-12 very uncertain. The nine remaining teams seem held together by baling wire and duct tape as vultures circle. It has long been reported, most notably by Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports, that the Big 12 has interest in the three remaining “Four Corners Schools” – Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. San Diego State flirted with, presumably, an opportunity to join the Pac-12 only to give a very tepid new commitment to the Mountain West. The options for growth are limited and not great for the western most conference in college sports.
Two attractive teams, Oregon and Washington, are still available to an enterprising conference. While the Ducks and Huskies aren’t quite yet single and ready to mingle, one has to assume their departure would be just as uncomplicated as USC, UCLA and Colorado. Washington offers Nielsen TV market number 12 and Oregon is a brand in and of itself. What would be not to like among those two programs that have had success in multiple sports?
Expansion speculation can fuel endless hours of sports talk, but how do we get the discussion right? Is it more about who we want to see in each conference or what will actually drive these decisions: media markets and money? It is easy to throw out what an 18 or 20-team Big Ten would look like with teams in all four time zones, a college version of the NFL. Unless that discussion is balanced with the prospects of additional TV money that would come with those teams, the discussion lacks proper context.
You have to find that balance. Entertain your listeners, but remember that they come to you to hear your insight. You look at the media business differently and more closely than they do and know and think of things they probably don’t.
The Big Ten could likely add Oregon and Washington before you finish reading this column but, could the conference convince FOX, NBC and CBS to pay another $200 Million for those teams to join? If they don’t pay somewhere in that neighborhood, the race to beat the SEC to the $100 million-per-school payout takes a big hit. I too would love the idea of a Pacific Coast arm of the Big Ten giving me ”Big Ten After Dark” (that doesn’t really have the same ring) but I am not a Big Ten member that then asks conference leadership why we would add two schools and get less money for it?
The world of conference expansion is a convoluted one. Maps that once mattered have been thrown aside and TV markets are driving the deals. Making a conference more competitive takes a back seat to making a conference more appealing to television networks (see: Rutgers to the Big Ten). If we talk about the endless possibilities of conference expansion, the conversation has to start with how the added teams impact TV ratings. It isn’t a sexy discussion but it is a more realistic one.
The only other word of warning would be: pay very close attention to George Kliavkoff’s words. When he thinks the conference expansion waters have settled, you best find a lifeboat. At this rate, his conference members will be floating in the frigid ocean awaiting the RMS Carpathia’s arrival. Kliavkoff better hope a lucrative media deal is on board that ship or, it might be too little too late.
Ryan Brown is a columnist for Barrett Sports Media, and a co-host of the popular sports audio/video show ‘The Next Round’ formerly known as JOX Roundtable, which previously aired on WJOX in Birmingham. You can find him on Twitter @RyanBrownLive and follow his show @NextRoundLive.
