With less than a year until the 2024 Presidential Election, American screens are going to be flooded with political advertising, the billion-dollar industry that keeps the media alive. And Silver Oak Political, and its President Steve Passwaiter, will play a role in it, despite questioning some of the projects put forth thus far.
“I’m old enough to remember when television stations didn’t want political advertising. Now, of course, it makes such a big difference in the odd or even year dichotomy in media because of that infusion,” President of Silver Oak Political Steve Passwaiter told BNM over a Zoom call.
Ad Impact estimates a $10 billion influx of cash for media outlets, while Group M estimates it could bring $16 billion, a 31% increase since 2020.
However, Passwaiter doesn’t believe advertising dollars will hit $16 billion because, “You’d have to raise. I don’t know $30 [billion], somewhere in the high $20 billions, in order to justify a number that big. Generally, advertising is around anywhere from 55 to 60% of every dollar raised goes to fundraising or part of it goes to advertising. Whereas, the rest of it goes to pay for the office space and the staff and all the kind of things you need to run an operation.”
Getting a piece of the political advertising pie might be harder for some this year, because streaming and OTT Services, or as Steve Passwaiter calls it “Connected TV”, have “had a few cycles where they’ve been able to work with the agencies and I think they now have a flow.” He believes, “Politics is a video business. I always say candidates are like car dealers. They’re going to put their faces on TV, whether they should be there or not. And it just sort of comes with the territory,” adding, “[Video Platforms] are going to be the ones that are going to see the most out of this because that is the way that politics communicates the message.” Passwaiter estimates streaming services plus broadcast and cable will bring in a combined $8.3 Billion, with radio and direct mail “probably pull[ing] in a few hundred million out of this.”
Passwaiter believes “Connected TV [OTT and Streaming] is coming as the numbers grow. And, I think it’s got a very, very bright future in front of it.” He added, “The SAT manufacturers, Vizio, LG, Samsung all have hired their own people to represent them here in Washington. I think they have fast channels that they use that have capabilities to sell. So this cycle, all three decided to hire their own people to represent them here in the political market.”
Advertising dollars could be taken away from both parties because of Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s third-party run. Steve Passwaiter doesn’t know if it helps or hurts either party.
“As people say, the political spectrum is like this [making a straight line motion]. It’s actually a circle. And there’s kind of a place up here where left and right kind of meet. And some people may like [Kennedy’s] stance on, you know, that are normally Republican-leaning in one way or the other. So it’ll be interesting to see.” He later added, “I think at some point some of the stances that [Kennedy has] taken in the past may get placed into more public knowledge, shall we say. And some people are just going to kind of go, ‘Hey, you really want to know the positions this guy has taken because he’s taken some, shall we say, controversial stances in the past. And he said some pretty wild things.’”
In July, Americans got their first taste of Artificial Intelligence (AI) entering into political advertising. A pro-Ron DeSantis PAC simulated President Trump’s voice in political advertising which aired in Iowa. It slammed the former President’s lack of support for the state’s Governor, Kim Reynolds. There was no notice on the ad that the voiceover was not that of President Trump but artificially made.
While he does have concerns Passwaiter says, “It’s like everything else in this world,” adding, “There are things about it that we can think and there are things about it that can really be good. And then there’s the other side of it, which we all look around and go, ‘Well, you know, that could be really bad’.”
When asked if there should be regulation on AI, Passwaiter said, “The government is certainly looking at it, which you can either look at as a joy or horror depending on your point of view. My guess would be that before it gets too out of control and, something will happen. You know, there’ll be some kind of regulation about it.”
He does have concerns about the regulation which could come up, “I’ll say an interesting and sometimes frightening piece of this is when cutting edge technology is brought in front of a congressional hearing here in Washington. You’ve got a bunch of people who are a little further down the road in life who have their staffers trying to tell them what it is because they have no idea,” Passwaiter said.
As for 2024 candidates, Steve Passwaiter told Barrett News Media, “There’s not a lot of enthusiasm in parts of the Democratic base where Mr. Biden is concerned. So, if they can drive that, it’s an interesting strategy and one that may help them quite a bit if indeed Mr. Biden is the nominee of the party.” When asked “You’re still still not convinced?” Passwaiter replied honestly, “I’m not. Listen, I’m not sure about Trump either. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in these cases.”
Passwaiter’s been involved in the political arena since high school but said today more than ever advertising is essential to the ‘ultimate sport,’ “It’s the primary way today that candidates and the parties and all of their associated interests get to have a conversation with voters.” Passwaiter added, “it’s a very loud conversation. It can be a fairly obnoxious conversation, but it is an important way to get a message out there one way or the other, where more voters are concerned. That’s why it’s important.”
As for the future of political advertising, Passwaiter said, “I keep waiting for the crest of the wave to show up. I keep thinking, it can’t get any bigger. It just can’t grow. And every cycle, it confounds my expectations. I don’t really see anything that’s going to get in the way of this continuing to grow the country. It’s so narrowly divided, which sets up this cage match. Every cycle, this one is going to be no different.”
Krystina Alarcon Carroll is a news media columnist and features writer for Barrett Media. She has experience in almost every facet of the industry including: digital and print news; live, streamed, and syndicated TV; documentary and film productions. Her prior employers have included NY1 and Fox News Digital and the Law & Crime Network. You can find Krystina on X (formerly twitter) @KrystinaAlaCarr.
