After a cautious 2025 outlook, BIA Advisory Services is signaling a more encouraging forecast for broadcasters heading into 2026.
Radio, which had been dealing with modest declines, is expected to see over-the-air revenue rebound while digital continues its steady climb.
The biggest driver? Politics. BIA estimates $7.9 billion in political advertising will flow through local media during the 2026 election cycle — one of the largest in recent history. With all 435 House seats, 35 Senate contests, 36 gubernatorial races, and 30 attorney general offices up for grabs, campaigns are expected to flood the market in search of local reach.
In a webinar alongside Marketron CEO Jimshade Chaudhari, BIA’s VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, Senan Mele, outlined what broadcasters can expect. Radio’s over-the-air revenue is projected to grow 1.83% year-over-year in 2026, a reversal of the declines forecast for 2025. Meanwhile, radio digital revenue — already one of the industry’s brightest spots — is projected to climb 5.01% in 2026 after a 4.5% bump in 2025.
Chaudhari stressed that broadcasters must get aggressive now, calling the upcoming election cycle “too large an opportunity to overlook.” He suggested sellers should be bundling OTA, digital, and CTV offerings while refining inventory strategies to maximize demand.
Radio continues to hold a unique advantage in local advertising. Nielsen data shows advertisers still see a $10 return for every dollar spent on radio campaigns, cementing its role as a cost-effective channel.
And even before 2026 arrives, broadcasters could get a holiday boost. BIA projects U.S. retail sales to rise 1.2% during the 2025 holiday season, with advertisers planning campaigns earlier than usual to reach shoppers ahead of a later Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Barrett Media produces daily content on the music, news, and sports media industries. To stay updated, sign up for our newsletters and get the latest information delivered straight to your inbox.
