Before this year, I’m not sure too many folks were putting extra effort into unraveling the mysteries of USA Basketball’s selection process for the women’s Olympic team. When you’ve won seven gold medals in a row and have a 72-3 composite record, it’s hard to stir too much controversy over, say, the 12th player.
But that’s where we are today, since Caitlin Clark wound up on the outside looking in. And although Team USA’s first Olympic tipoff is still seven weeks off, we can go ahead and tally up some early winners and losers.
Winner: Sports talk. Seldom have so many babbled so often on a topic about which they know so little. Again, that’s the Clark effect in full bloom. Her stunning rise in popularity during her college years not only riveted fans, but made her name one that sports yakkers could throw out there fearlessly, as if to say, Sure, I follow women’s hoops. (No, you don’t.)
Loser: Olympics watchers. The U.S. women are 54-0 at the Games since 1996, so there’s not a ton of drama attached here. But watching Clark rain down some ludicrous threes on the Paris stage, even if she were limited to 12 or 15 minutes a game, would’ve been fun.
Winner: Caitlin Clark. She’s pretty good. And even if her exclusion from the Oly squad is fully justified by the number of players who are better, Clark receives another popularity bump in a weird, martyred way that I’m sure she wouldn’t seek. She really doesn’t need to be outraged, since people are outraged on her behalf. (Clark could still be added to the roster if injuries or other unforeseen circumstances occur.)
Loser: Women’s basketball. This topic really has been pounded into the ground. But Christine Brennan summed it up best in this piece for USA Today: It’s an airball for the women’s sport not to include its one current, bona fide, no-questions-asked sensation as it takes the world stage. Sensation does not mean best in class. Sensation means sensation. Clark is compulsively watchable right now.
Which brings us to…
Loser: NBC Sports. Wow. Huge. Bigly.
It’s hard to calculate what the NBC Olympics broadcast could have had if Caitlin Clark were selected to the women’s team. It’s hard because we’re trying to add up what didn’t happen, and that’s always a bit of a puzzle.
But here’s what an NBC spokesperson told Front Office Sports’ Michael McCarthy back in April about Clark’s potential ratings effect, should she make the team:
“Caitlin’s impact on viewership is undeniable and historic,” the spokesperson said. “Her presence on Team USA in Paris would only add to the growing anticipation and excitement for the Summer Games starting in just over 100 days.”
Undeniable and historic. Brennan was on the mark when she suggested that three of the dominant American storylines in Paris likely would have been Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky and Clark. NBC still gets two out of three, but amazing ratings for gymnastics and swimming are almost always guaranteed. The network was already banking on that.
Women’s hoops, while certainly popular, is still ripe for ratings growth. Clark’s presence not only would’ve spiked those ratings, it would have introduced a basketball-watching world to a number of other great players, American and international.
We can’t put an exact dollar figure on what that kind of focus would be worth, but here’s one way to think about it: The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were the lowest-rated on record, with about 11.4 million viewers tuning in during prime time. The 2021 pandemic-delayed Tokyo Games were at 15.6 million. This year’s women’s NCAA basketball title game between Clark’s Iowa Hawkeyes and South Carolina drew 18.9 million viewers – the biggest TV audience for a basketball game since 2019, according to Nielsen.
That is men’s or women’s games, college or pro. None higher. That’s absurd. And without diminishing any of the great storylines that ran through that NCAA tournament, including coach Dawn Staley’s South Carolina team completing a perfect 38-0 season, you have to know that the engine of the historic viewership was the sensation of Clark.
As for the Olympics, NBC isn’t exactly suffering. In April, parent company Comcast said the network had already sold $1.2 billion worth of advertising for the Paris Games, including $350 million from first-time buyers.
Still, NBC is in the midst of a $7.65 billion deal to hold Olympics broadcast rights through 2032. In that respect, I guess, every penny counts – and it’s hard to fathom just how many extra pennies Caitlin Clark’s inclusion on the women’s team might have meant, both now and down the road.
Again, it’s hard to total up what you could’ve had. All NBC knows for sure is that it didn’t get the opportunity.
Mark Kreidler is a national award-winning writer whose work has appeared at ESPN, the New York Times, Washington Post, Time, Newsweek and dozens of other publications. He’s also a sports-talk veteran with stops in San Francisco and Sacramento, and the author of three books, including the bestselling “Four Days to Glory.” More of his writing can be found at https://markkreidler.substack.com. He is also reachable on Twitter @MarkKreidler.
