Recent trade press articles disclosed that the paper version of the Nielsen Audio radio diary is to be killed off in the relatively near future, perhaps late in 2025.
However, if you’re in a diary market and your ratings are poor, “late 2025” probably seems eons away. More than 200 metros, as well as the non-metro areas of the country, are dependent on the diary service, so any change in methodology matters.
This week, I’ll look at how many years ago we ended up with a seven-day paper diary that is still being used in the mid-2020s. Next week, I’ll discuss the implications this change may have for the industry.
Contrary to at least one article, the then-Arbitron radio diary did not start during the Eisenhower administration. In fact, it was the Johnson administration. It’s always important to keep our presidents in the proper time perspective. The credit for inventing the diary, which began around 1965, is given to the late Bill McClenaghan during his time at Arbitron and who later spent many years as head of research for the ABC Radio Networks. Bill was a top-notch researcher but was also a classic curmudgeon. If he liked you, great. If he didn’t, well, one example I cite is when I had just been hired by the National Association of Broadcasters.
It was 1987 and they told me to fly to NYC (I was still working on my doctorate in East Lansing) for an all-day research meeting with Birch/Scarborough ratings sponsored by the Radio Advertising Bureau and their one-time research committee, known as RAB GOALS. By early afternoon, things became testy and Bill, now at ABC, became upset, stood up, and said aloud to the Birch folks as well as the attendees, “F— you and f— your company”.
He then walked out of the meeting. Some others left with him. Bob Galen, then head of research for the RAB, showing a look of resignation from the front row of the room, signaled to continue the meeting with those remaining. Years later, I asked Bill about that confrontation and his comment was “They lied to me”. Radio research was more of a blood sport back then.
I’m stressing the word “paper” as the diary will still be around, but from what I’ve read, it’s simply a move to an online version, which by 2025, makes sense. You may be chuckling since almost everything we do is online, but the transition is not that simple. Again, some history is in order because the online diary has been a goal for radio audience measurement for at least twenty years.
Any change in methodology will very likely change the results of a survey. If there is one thing that media outlets don’t like, it’s a change in results, unless the results favor you. PPM is an obvious example because if you were working in a market that transitioned from diary to PPM, your world became very different overnight.
When Arbitron designed multiple versions of an electronic version of the diary around 2005-06 (pre-PPM), the “prime directive” from the relevant industry committees was to ensure there would be no changes in results. The online diary was offered to respondents as a choice in the Winter 2007 survey, but was stopped after two months (two phases). The reason was simple: we had one small design flaw (and I use “we” because I was heavily involved).
When a respondent finished the seven days of the online version of the diary, the requirement was to click a “submit” button. A relatively high percentage finished the diary but didn’t click “submit”. That reduced the return rate which drove the operations people nuts because they were missing their goals. By the way, in 2007, when given a choice, only around five percent of diary keepers chose the online version over paper. Rather than fixing the issue, the initial E-Diary was tossed on the scrap heap of radio measurement history.
Next was Project Leapfrog which began around 2010 and was designed to change the entire system including an online component. From my perspective at that time, Project Leapfrog had about as much likelihood of coming to fruition as me becoming Fox News’ choice to replace Tucker Carlson. When Leapfrog was finally (and quietly) killed off, my side bet with an Arbitron colleague gave me the opportunity to say “I told you so” with a large smile on my face.
Now it’s 2023 and Nielsen Audio is talking publicly about the end of the paper diary, perhaps in 2025. The local TV diary, which lasted well beyond its ability to measure television viewing by perhaps 20-25 years, was finally given a proper burial by Nielsen in 2017, but the alternatives available to Nielsen to replace the TV diary don’t exist in radio or audio measurement.
In the next column, we’ll talk about what might happen when the paper radio diary goes online.
