If you are looking for a great business investment, you have come to the right place. One of the best ways to make a boatload of money in this economy is to sell football media rights. The NFL sells theirs for the approximate value of one of Saturn’s moons, and it appears the College Football Playoff is trying to get into that same solar system. What started as a four horse race; FOX, CBS, NBC and ESPN/ABC appears to have a clear leader. You could probably guess, it is ESPN/ABC.
To begin with, the current College Football Playoff media rights deal, held exclusively by ESPN, doesn’t expire for two more seasons. That deal, however, only gives ESPN the rights to the next two semifinals and finals. With the playoff expansion to 12 teams, the first two rounds were going to be bid separately for those two years. Industry sources have indicated that the asking price from the College Football Playoff was considerably out of whack.
That does not appear to have slowed down ESPN/ABC. ESPN’s Pete Thamel has reported the network for whom he works is ready to scoop up those yet to be claimed games and pay for the six years following. The additional six years, according to Thamel, would be valued somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.3 billion. So, starting in 2026, ESPN would be paying roughly $216.6 million per year for eleven games. If you assume the $20 million per game rate is the asking price, ESPN could be paying an additional $100-$160 million dollars for the first two rounds in the 2024 and 2025 College Football Playoffs.
The early thinking among the college conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director was that the NFL model seemed to maximize the dollars for the college playoff. There seemed to be power in numbers and bringing FOX, NBC and CBS to the table might have been the best deal. Something has changed along the way and ESPN/ABC appears to be the betting favorite to hold all the cards at the end of the game.
In many ways, ESPN owning the entire Playoff makes the most sense. Nobody can maximize the inventory of games more than ESPN by utilizing ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNews and unlimited digital space at ESPN+. No other suitor has as many options to recoup their investment than the ESPN/ABC properties. In fact Monday’s ESPN “MegaCast” drew the largest College Football Playoffs National Championship Game audience since the 2019 LSU-Clemson game. More than 25 million people watched one of the multitude of ESPN offerings.
The next hurdle any rightsholder must jump is the one thrown in front of them by the NFL. The first round games of the 2024 playoff are slated for a single game Friday, December 20th and a triple header Saturday, December 21st. That weekend in 2023 featured an NFL double header on Peacock and NBC. In general, the NFL has played whenever they have chosen to play and given little concern to any other event that might be played at the same time. ESPN/ABC would have to find a way to avoid the NFL head-to-head in the opening weekend, especially if they are shelling out a quarter of a billion dollars for that year’s games.
The calendar is much kinder to the remainder of the 2024 College Football Playoff. The second round, played in four of the current New Year’s Six bowl games, will fall on a Tuesday and Wednesday, New Years Eve and New Years Day. The semifinals will be on a Thursday night in the Orange Bowl and a Friday night in the Cotton Bowl. The Championship Game will keep the Monday night date, though it will be eleven days later than this year’s championship. Those final three rounds are, currently, without NFL competition and will have every opportunity to bring in massive ratings.
There is one other strategy that should be mentioned as a possibility. ESPN could also buy the rights to the entire College Football Playoff with the intention of selling off some of the parts to the other networks. This may not be their desire but one can assume FOX, NBC and CBS would have a price in mind to get a slice of the pie and this would be a way to wade into the waters with the possibility of becoming a much bigger partner in eight years.
The one thing we have learned about the College Football Playoffs is things can change drastically and quickly. ESPN/ABC was always the favorite but the reports make it appear both sides are at the altar. I would be surprised if they don’t emerge from this as the winner once all the negotiating is done. When that occurs remains to be seen, in my experience it is best to be thorough when spending $1.3 billion.
Ryan Brown is a columnist for Barrett Sports Media, and a co-host of the popular sports audio/video show ‘The Next Round’ formerly known as JOX Roundtable, which previously aired on WJOX in Birmingham. You can find him on Twitter @RyanBrownLive and follow his show @NextRoundLive.
