Last year, I wrote that the Super Bowl will never be a pay-per-view event. And while forever feels like a long time, I still stand firm in that comment. Roger Goodell fielded similar questions in his recent State of the League address, and I think it’s time to shift the narrative a bit.
The NFL will never put the Super Bowl strictly on a streaming service.
Never is a long time. But unless over-the-air television goes the way of the dodo, I feel confident in saying the Super Bowl will never be solely on Amazon Prime Video, ESPN+, Peacock, Netflix, AppleTV, or whatever streaming service you can dream up.
When asked if that was the future of the league’s biggest event, Roger Goodell — famously cryptic and vague — didn’t mince any words.
“Certainly not in my time,” said Goodell. “One of the secrets of our success is we are really committed to broadcast television. 90% of our games are on broadcast television. I think it’s the reason why you will see over 200 million people watch this game here in the United States, because it’s on broadcast television and the broadest possible platform.
“We’ll see the Super Bowl continue to be on the broadest possible platform, and I think we’ll continue to see the NFL on the broadest possible platform. 23 million people watched that NFL wild-card game,” he concluded.
Generally, my advice to you would be not to trust a word that comes out of the mouth of the NFL Commissioner. He has one goal and one goal only — find ways to make more money for the NFL owners.
But that’s why you can trust what he says in this instance. The best way for the NFL to continue to make billions of dollars if by keeping the Super Bowl on broadcast television.
You can pretend like Thursday Night Football, games in London, or even a Wild Card Game are remotely close to the same level as the Super Bowl. They aren’t. It’s the single biggest event in American television and isn’t likely to relinquish that spot anytime soon.
Former ESPN President John Skipper reiterated his belief that the Super Bowl will be on a streaming-only platform or a pay-per-view event “in the next eight years” last week, and I simply disagree. While I recognize how asinine it is for someone of my stature to question someone of Skipper’s, I just believe it’s shortsighted.
Part of my apprehension is I don’t know that companies will have found a way to monetize streaming like they did linear television in the next eight years. And maybe not just find profitability, but enough widespread profitability it can throw a sack of cash on Roger Goodell’s desk that sways him from his current position. Because while he — like most leaders who pretend to be principled — can be bought, I truly believe it would take an astronomical, jaw-dropping figure to move the Super Bowl away from broadcast TV. We’re talking like $1 billion strictly for that game. And even then, I don’t know that it’s enough.
The quest for finding more dollars for the NFL doesn’t come from limiting eyeballs on its marquee event. In theory, it sounds like an easy way to capitalize on a captive market. Everyone watches the Super Bowl, right? That’s because everyone has access to it. If you put it on a streaming service, even if it was Netflix — the most used streaming service by a wide margin — you’re still severely limiting your audience size. And while the NFL enjoys the billions it brings in every year, it also enjoys beating its chest that year-after-year, it’s the most dominant monster in the sports TV landscape.
Don’t expect that hubris to change anytime soon.
Garrett Searight is Barrett Media’s News Editor, which includes writing bi-weekly industry features and a weekly column. He has previously served as Program Director and Afternoon Co-Host on 93.1 The Fan in Lima, OH, and is the radio play-by-play voice of Northern Michigan University hockey. Reach out to him at Garrett@BarrettMedia.com.
