BIA Advisory Services has released its latest U.S. Local Advertising Forecast for 2025 which shows that local advertising will reach $171 billion next year.
That figure represents a 5.5% increase compared to 2024 when political advertising — which has been described as “unprecedented” in 2024 — is removed. When political advertising is included, the figure is a 1.7% decline compared to 2024.
“With macroeconomic conditions impacting 2024 local advertising spending, it has been slower than anticipated, and we’ve adjusted this year’s forecast,” said Nicole Ovadia, VP of Forecasting & Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “We’ve refined our projections for local advertising, both with and without political advertising, to better reflect anticipated overall media spend and to offer a view in the advertising marketplace from different perspectives.”
BIA is projecting $11.7 billion spent in the political realm during the 2024 election season, up $560 million from its last forecasts released in March. That number is a jump of 21.3% compared to the 2020 general election.
While local television continues to get the lion’s share of advertising from the political world, connected TV will receive a greater share in 2024.
As for the 2025 projections, the company believes changes in the political and financial spaces could lead to the growth expected for next year.
“We’re taking a nuanced view to shape our expectations. If the Fed adjusts interest rates as indicated, post-Q1 2025 or early Q2, and inflation cools and the labor market settles out, we anticipate some economic relief by mid-year,” Ovadia said. This will boost consumer confidence and, subsequently, increase media ad spend. While we’re optimistic, we’re also being cautious with our projections at this early stage.”
The company also projects that digital media revenue will eclipse traditional media next year. $89 billion is projected from that space that encompasses connected/OTT TV, mobile advertising, and digital from TV, radio, newspapers, and magazines. Meanwhile, BIA Advisory Services forecasts $82 billion to be spent on cable, over-the-air television and radio, and direct mail, among categories in the sector.
