There are a lot of annoying things on sports television – endless holding calls by officials that slow up football games, constant shots of celebrities that I am too old to be able to name at Lakers and Knicks home games, and grown men wearing white sneakers with formal suits on television, making them look like 7 year-olds at an arraignment. More confounding than any of these, however, is the NFL Mock Draft.
This quintessential crapshoot is like playing pin the tail on the donkey without the fun benefit of chicken fingers and birthday cake, and the real jack ass in the room is me watching it. I don’t blame mock drafters like Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, or others. The guesswork is part of their jobs. These guys jump to conclusions like Edwin Moses jumped hurdles.
For every Tom Brady sixth round pick turned GOAT, there is a Tony Mandarich first overall pick turned bust. For every epic fail disguised as a can’t miss kid like JaMarcus Russell, there is a Super Bowl quarterback disguised as Mr. Irrelevant like Brock Purdy. This is why NFL Mock Drafts are the most futile programs on any media platform. Moreover, the Seventh Circle of Hell holds a special place for early mock drafts.
Mock drafts that are released before Groundhog Day are as annoying as Bill Murray’s experiences in the movie of the same name. Continuing the movie theme and with all due respect to Forrest Gump, the NFL Draft, not life, is like a box of chocolates. You truly never know what you are going to get. Let me take it a step further with the movie Moneyball when A’s GM Billy Beane says to head scout Grady Fuse, “You don’t have a crystal ball. You can’t look at a kid and predict his future.”
Even now, in April, I need a case of Milk of Magnesia to stomach the endless array of NFL mock drafts, until I found Eric Edholm. The NFL.com Lead Draft Writer has been covering the league for over two decades with stops at The Sporting News, Pro Football Weekly, and Yahoo Sports. He is not as omnipresent as some of the aforementioned draft gurus, but in analyzing his work, I think he gets the fact that mock drafts are just that – fake NFL drafts.
Doing The Research That Stands Out
Edholm does his research and homework as well as anyone, but he also seems to have some fun with the genre. Looking at his NFL.com Mock Draft 2.0 released on March 28, Edholm subscribes to the growing sense that Miami quarterback Cam Ward will be the number 1 pick by the Tennessee Titans. Edholm’s next two choices shift a bit from conventional wisdom.
Most of the pre-draft chit-chat says that drafting a young quarterback should be a priority for Cleveland, but Edholm has them picking Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter. Similarly, the Giants, with two aging quarterbacks in Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, might also think young QB, but Edholm has them going with electric two-way star Travis Hunter, the cornerback and WR from Colorado.
Edholm’s top 3 picks stand apart from most mock drafts. Of course, none of these multimedia draft experts live in the pressure cooker of an actual NFL general manager or player personnel director. Like Jack Nicholson’s character in The Departed said, “Heavy lies the crown.” When you get a high-paying NFL gig and your job is to pick the team’s future, you better not mess up or guess what? You will end up doing mock drafts on some television network.
As for the New England Patriots picking at number 4, much of the general consensus points to LSU offensive lineman Will Campbell. Instead, Edholm has New England selecting right tackle Armand Membou of Missouri. With number 5, he has the Jaguars drafting Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, another pick that could be defined as a reach. The 2024 success of Raiders’ tight end Brock Bowers has probably helped Warren’s cause as a possible top 5 choice. Edholm points out that the Jags have a new general manager in James Gladstone and head coach in Liam Coen, both under age 40. Maybe the Jaguars war room is at a Chuck E. Cheese.
Different Perspectives That Make You Think
Edholm won me over with the creativity and uniqueness of his mock draft. The #6 pick is a great example of this. Throughout the off-season, new Raiders’ part owner Tom Brady has been exerting his influence on the team’s roster plans with much of the focus on drafting a quarterback. The Raiders now have veteran Geno Smith in the fold so choosing Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders seems like the natural next move. Again veering from the predictable, Edholm has Vegas selecting Boise State running back, Ashton Jeanty.
Edholm stated, “With Geno Smith, Brock Bowers and Jeanty, the offensive identity would start taking shape – even if the WR room still needs major help.” He is correct, and this choice has Brady written all over it. While Brady was a passer par excellence, he always benefited from having a rock solid running back from his first season in New England with Antoine Smith to his last in Tampa Bay with Leonard Fournette. Edholm has Will Campbell slipping to pick 10 owned by the Chicago Bears giving second year QB Caleb Williams a stud tackle and the front office a value pick at that slot.
When the NFL Draft was held yearly in New York, the TV highlight was watching the New York Jets make their pick and then be roundly booed by the Big Apple crowd in attendance. These days, the most interesting pick belongs to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. Many draft experts have the Cowboys trying to move up from pick 12 to get Jeanty, but Edholm has the Cowboys staying put and selecting RB Omarion Hampton of North Carolina with this pick. He wrote, “If the Cowboys truly want to aid their new coach, why not give him a workhorse back who can grow into the spotlight in Dak Prescott‘s later years? Brian Schottenheimer has always been a run-heavy, ball-control play-caller.”
Fortune Favors The Bold…. Pick
The haymaker pick in Edholm’s NFL.com Mock Draft 2.0 comes at number 15. It is here that he has the Cleveland Browns making a trade with the Atlanta Falcons to move back into the first round to select Shedeur Sanders. If this happens, Cleveland’s GM Andrew Berry should be handed the NFL Executive of the Year award on May 1. Snagging Carter and Sanders would be a draft that no one could mock. This is another reason why I was drawn to Edholm’s style. He takes chances with his predictions. If you are going to engage in guess work, why not get creative with it and make it fun for your audience?
Further down in the draft, Edholm has another potential top 10 pick dropping to #20 with the Denver Broncos selecting wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan of Arizona. This would be a steal for Denver and, as Edholm explains, would give sensational quarterback Bo Nix another talented target.
Edholm provides his thinking behind every pick and does not merely fall back on the ‘best player available’ mentality. Picks 22 and 23 in his Mock Draft 2.0 show this. He has the Chargers selecting Boston College rusher Donovan Ezeiraku as a potential successor to the aging Khalil Mack and the Packers taking Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden pointing to the injury prone nature of Green Bay wideout Christian Watson as a reason for the selection.
I also like Edholm’s thinking with picks 27 and 28. Two hard-nosed, rough-and-tumble teams, the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions, go for offensive linemen. The Ravens select Ohio State’s Josh Simmons and the Lions take North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel.
Edholm’s mock draft picks stand out whether you catch them at NFL.com or they catch you on the NFL Network lower third news crawl. I’m sure he will have more versions as we approach draft day, and admittedly, I cannot wait. With his unique takes, assessment of team needs, trade scenarios, and spot on commentary, Edholm has converted me. Yes, I’m hooked, but please, don’t mock me.
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John Molori is a weekly columnist for Barrett Sports Media. He has previously contributed to ESPNW, Patriots Football Weekly, Golf Content Network, Methuen Life Magazine, and wrote a syndicated Media Blitz column in the New England region, which was published by numerous outlets including The Boston Metro, Providence Journal, Lowell Sun, and the Eagle-Tribune. His career also includes fourteen years in television as a News and Sports Reporter, Host, Producer working for Continental Cablevision, MediaOne, and AT&T. He can be reached on Twitter @MoloriMedia.
Great article as always Johnny!
Personally, the draft is my second favorite part of the football “season”. I can’t get enough of mock drafts. The problem, as you know and you touched upon it, is when a team trades out? It blows everything up. My cousin’s wife works for the Saints and she tells me the Pats and Saints have been on the phone a lot. What does that mean? Who knows?! I just wait until next Thursday night. I think the Patriots would like to move out but there’s no takers. They’re going with the safe kid. Campbell. Leader, tough, if he doesn’t make it as a LT, you’ll have an All-Pro caliber player at guard.
Be well my friend!