BIA Advisory Services has raised its 2026 local advertising forecast by $1.6 billion. The firm now expects local ad revenue to reach $186.1 billion this year.
What We Know: BIA Advisory Services now projects a 9% year-over-year increase in total local advertising revenue for 2026. However, political advertising accounts for much of that growth, with the firm forecasting $9.7 billion in local political spending. Excluding political advertising, BIA expects local ad revenue to reach $176.4 billion, representing a 3.9% increase from 2025. Meanwhile, the company has issued its first forecast for 2027, projecting $186.5 billion in local advertising revenue.
What They Said: “Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT. Legal Services was also notable in this update, reaching $9.3 billion, up 4.6% from the prior forecast. Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand.” -BIA Advisory Services VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele
What The Numbers Show: BIA’s revised 2026 projection puts local advertising revenue $1.6 billion above its previous forecast. Political spending represents more than $9 billion of the total, while legal services advertising has also emerged as a notable category at $9.3 billion. Furthermore, BIA’s 2027 forecast of $186.5 billion sits just $400 million above its revised 2026 estimate.
What It Means: The updated forecast points to a stronger local advertising market in 2026, although political spending is driving a significant portion of the increase. At the same time, the essentially flat 2027 projection suggests advertisers and media companies shouldn’t expect another major jump once the political cycle ends. Meanwhile, continued spending from legal services and television could provide stability across traditional and streaming platforms.
Barrett Media produces daily content on the music, news, and sports media industries. Sign up for our newsletters to stay updated and get the latest information right in your inbox.
