Local advertising is nearing a tipping point. New research from Borrell Associates projects that digital will capture 80% of all local ad dollars by 2030. That forecast should change how local media companies think about the next four years.
The firm now expects local digital advertising to grow 8.6% in 2026. Previously, it projected 4.5% growth. As a result, digital will reach 75% of local advertising by 2027 and 80% by 2030.
Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates, which conducted the study and compiled the data, says the number surprised him a little. Still, the trend has been building for decades.
“It’s always been headed in that direction since 2001,” Borrell said. “I think if I had said in 2001 that by 2030 it would be 80% of everything, they would have thrown me off the stage. It’s too hard to predict the future. What was surprising, even though the trend was in that direction, was that it would inch past 75.”
Why Digital Keeps Winning Local Budgets
So why are local marketers shifting dollars online? According to Borrell, the answer starts with results and price. Social media leads the way.
“Social media is at the top of the scale for advertisers,” shared Borrell. “Shoot me, but it’s what advertisers are saying: social media, particularly Facebook, works for them.”
To illustrate, Borrell described a recent visit to a feed and seed store. The owner told him he spends nothing on advertising and simply posts on Facebook. Customers respond, so he believes it works.
“The other overriding thing is that it’s measurable, faulty as it may be,” the Borrell Associates CEO stated. “It comes with statistics. You place a radio ad, and the station can’t tell you how many people heard it, how many people liked the ad or liked the program.”
Meanwhile, the local business landscape has changed dramatically. Borrell Associates found that 5.8 million of the 10 million businesses open at the start of 2020 have collapsed. In their place, a wave of smaller companies has launched. Naturally, those startups begin with a website, then social media, then free Google business listings.
What It Means for Traditional Media
For legacy platforms, the outlook looks sobering. Borrell Associates expects most traditional media to keep shrinking through 2030. Outdoor and direct mail should show more resilience, though.
“80% by 2030, it’s definitely plausible, or we wouldn’t say it,” Borrell said. “That’s not good for traditional media. Which means over the next four years they’re just going to continue to shrink. Most of them. I think outdoor has some resilience, as does direct mail.”
However, the shift also creates an opening. Growing businesses eventually graduate from digital to traditional media. Borrell says that’s where radio, TV and other platforms can win.
“They start in digital, and then when the business grows, and they get more leads, they get more money to spend, and then they start spending serious money,” shared Borrell. “That’s when that money goes to radio, top of the list in a lot of cases.”
Therefore, sellers must meet advertisers where they start. That means leading with digital instead of pitching radio or TV first.
“Go in first with digital, because that’s all the advertiser wants to talk about,” Borrell said. “They don’t want to talk about radio. They understand that.”
Why Advertisers See Through the CNA
Meanwhile, the traditional sales playbook faces its own scrutiny. Borrell Associates has surveyed tens of thousands of advertisers over the years about what they want from local media companies.
“Number one is a lower price,” Borrell said. “Sorry, that’s what it is. Number two is better ROI.”
Right behind those priorities, advertisers want an honest advisor. Unfortunately, many don’t see that in the customer needs analysis. Reps spend an hour asking questions, then recommend whatever they sell. Advertisers have noticed.
“It’s like a fricking waste of time,” shared Borrell. “You just wasted an hour of my time. What are my needs? What you’re selling? Really?”
Cold outreach fares no better. Busy executives scan the sender and subject line, then decide within seconds.
“We’re so busy,” the Borrell Associates CEO stated. “Attention is the new currency, and if you can build up that currency and that value, you can get people to pay attention when you send an email.”
Ultimately, Borrell Associates urges sellers to ditch anecdotal prospecting. Too many reps chase the same HVAC companies and auto dealers. Meanwhile, the firm says thousands of unknown businesses sit in many markets.
“Go to where the money is,” Borrell said. “Do the Willie Sutton thing.”
Barrett Media produces daily content on the music, news, and sports media industries. Sign up for our newsletters to stay updated and get the latest information right in your inbox.
