The podcasting boom changed media forever. For years, anyone with a microphone and an idea could launch a show and find an audience. But lately, I’ve been wondering: is the podcasting boom actually over?

Obviously, this is anecdotal. In the three-and-a-half years I’ve worked at Barrett Media, I felt like I was writing about a new podcast launch almost every single day. Now? Maybe once a week. Perhaps once every other week. That shift is hard to ignore.

So the question lingers: has everyone who wants a podcast already got one? Or is there simply no clear pathway anymore to launching a show that actually succeeds?

The advertising revenue picture looks rosy on the surface. Study after study projects continued growth in podcast ad spending. However, that same research consistently shows the lion’s share of those dollars flows exclusively to the top tier of shows. The rest fight over the scraps. That’s a brutal reality for anyone hoping to build something new from the ground up.

Then there’s the format evolution happening in real time. Audio-only podcasts are virtually extinct at this point. Outside of powerhouse programs like NPR’s flagship shows or The Daily, everything carries a video component now — and justifiably so. YouTube, Instagram Reels, and TikTok represent massive opportunities to expose your show to audiences who’d never find it otherwise.

But I’m growing increasingly skeptical that short-form video actually converts casual scrollers into dedicated listeners. I genuinely struggle to believe that someone watching a three-minute clip on TikTok or YouTube Shorts then commits to becoming a regular viewer of an hour-long show. Maybe I’m way off base on that. Still, the conversion math feels shaky to me.

Consider what it takes to break through today. You essentially need a pre-built audience before you ever hit record. The creators gaining traction with new podcasts almost universally arrive with a million social media followers already in their corner. They’re not building an audience through the podcast — they’re transferring one they already own.

For everyone else, the math gets discouraging fast. Without that built-in following, without a major network behind you, and without a marketing budget, the chances of launching a successful, revenue-generating show feel increasingly slim. Platforms like Spotify and Apple Podcasts are crowded beyond comprehension. Discovery remains a persistent, unsolved problem across the entire industry.

Furthermore, the content itself has changed. The scrappy, intimate nature that made podcasting feel revolutionary has largely given way to polished productions that require real investment — cameras, lighting, editing software, and production staff. The barrier to entry has risen considerably, even if technically anyone can still start a show with just a phone.

So where does that leave us? The boom created an era where podcasting felt wide open — a genuine democratization of media. Today, the landscape looks far more consolidated. The big shows keep getting bigger. The ad dollars keep concentrating at the top. Meanwhile, new launches feel increasingly rare, at least from where I sit.

That doesn’t mean podcasting is dying. The medium remains enormously powerful. But the wide-open frontier phase — where launching something new felt genuinely possible for anyone — appears to be closing.

And if there’s no realistic pathway for an average creator without a massive social following to build a successful, revenue-generating podcast today, then that pretty much answers the question, doesn’t it? The boom isn’t necessarily over. The boom era, though — that window where anything felt possible — just might be.

Barrett Media produces daily content on the music, news, and sports media industries. Sign up for our newsletters to stay updated and get the latest information right in your inbox.