As a football team faces a fourth-and-short situation on offense, there are often questions pertaining to whether the group should try and secure a first down or call its special teams unit for a punt. Some broadcast networks will reference ‘analytics’ in guiding the decision-making process, yet there are disagreements over the precise definition of the term. Cynthia Frelund recognizes that identifying just what systems and paradigms encompass analytics is an undertaking enterprises approach in different manners. The lack of standardization regarding the components of ‘analytics’ can create inconsistencies in how they are used and sometimes raise doubt or uncertainty.
Frelund joined NFL Network in 2016 as its first-ever on-air analytics expert and appears across programming throughout the season. Bringing a keen understanding of mathematics and passion for football to the airwaves, she has helped launch a new subset of sports coverage as fans follow the league and its teams. No matter the complexity, Frelund is always looking to decode the rationale behind her findings.
“It’s hard to find someone who can authentically connect with the numbers that wants to do it on air that is willing to be molded and shaped, and it’s a challenging landscape to work in sports media, especially the past couple of years, but we’re trying to do something different,” Frelund said. “So, I viewed it as an opportunity to be sort of an entrepreneur in this space that’s growing and emerging, but obviously it always helps to have the most viewed and cared about sports in the United States to be kind of your subject matter.”
In entering a role with no direct precedent, there has been experimentation surrounding how to best use Frelund across NFL Network programming. Over the last several years, she has contributed to shows such as NFL GameDay Morning, NFL Fantasy Live and NFL GameDay View, blending information with lighthearted revelry and showcasing personality. With her background in computer science and predictive analytics, Frelund possesses an innate penchant for curiosity and inquiry while gleaning the entropic nature of competition.
“I think it’s been an interesting journey to express my fandom showing that I still think some things are funny or not funny, even though it doesn’t bias my model,” Frelund said. “I do all my models – I model them blindly, so I don’t even know. When I push send, they turn into colors or they turn into whatever, so I can’t see when I have to make [changes] because there are some judgment calls you have to make, but you have to make them blindly.”
The NFL entered into a partnership with Zebra Technologies last decade that installed real-time location system technology into 17 stadiums for the season to collect data and information. Three years later, Amazon Web Services became the official technology provider for this platform, equipping its artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities to drive innovation.
Frelund can evince the enhanced potency of these systems, referencing the premise of Moore’s Law in that computing power will exponentially grow by doubling in the number of transistors once per decade. Yet when designing models that apply data to outline trends, suggest probabilities and settle on predictions, she accounts for variation in the marketplace while examining causation and carrying out any potential modifications after evaluating overall accuracy.
“A lot of times, it’s creating parallel models that run on different metrics,” Frelund said. “Because there are so many different coding languages out there and you can do analysis in so many different ways, staying on top of the structure, limitations and capabilities of each type of software out there allows me to kind of see if something’s worth exploring more and integrating and looking through those parallel models to see, ‘Okay, this one’s actually been a higher value model [and] more predictive than that one.’”
Frelund started her career in private equity, but she decided to return to business school upon exploring how to best identify value and worked in the NFL finance department for a summer. After her graduation from Northwestern University, she joined Disney ABC Television Group in business development and had the chance to work with several accomplished media executives. From the rapid assessment and prioritization of ideas from Albert Cheng to the thinking patterns and leadership of Jimmy Pitaro, she was able to express her ideas and make an impact on the direction of the division. Two years later, Frelund moved to ESPN where she was an associate director for technology development and focused on innovation.
“It was really interesting to see what drove results and what didn’t, and that’s not dissimilar to how NFL teams now in my current role kind of see things as well or how the Next Gen Stats, how we tell stories with that on television,” Frelund said. “To me, it’s all kind of the same thing. It’s like, ‘Let’s identify a good reason for why, and if it doesn’t work, let’s identify what were the drivers of ‘Yes’ and what were the drivers of ‘No.’’”
Frelund attributes the Cleveland Browns hiring former baseball executive Paul DePodesta as chief strategy officer as a seminal moment for her starting to be on air. Combined with her passion for football and ESPN’s previous fantasy sports agreement with DraftKings, the network started to have Frelund on SportsCenter as a predictive analytics analyst spanning multiple disciplines. Devoid of previous on-air experience, she sought feedback from her mentors and focused on applying her studies of the craft in each repetition.
“I did an improv class to get over myself because I watched myself back, and I was like, ‘Who is that stiff, weird woman?,’” Frelund recalled. “I watched back, and I’m like, ‘Okay, my passion came through,’ but I felt like I needed to prove something – I felt like I had to say too much, I didn’t let things breathe.”
In thinking about the NFL, Frelund felt that she always had a home with the league and developed strong connections with key personnel. After keeping in touch with people involved over the years, she was extended an invitation to return and has since been utilizing data accumulation and application to distinguish trends and guide informed prognostication.
In addition to shows on NFL Network, Frelund started a digital program, titled Numbers Game, in which she immerses viewers deeper into the analytics and prioritizes what is most important to the niche audience. Frelund routinely looks for feedback through data, which she can discern through metrics such as engagement, impressions and click-through rate, and also speak with consumers through social media. Determining a proxy for demand has assisted in her quest to grow the show and surpass expectations.
“It’s very hard through a TV lens,” Frelund said. “It’s not like giving a presentation in school or something where you can watch people nodding, like a boardroom thing. You can’t see if someone’s paying attention, you don’t know how they’re reacting, so [with] Numbers Game, it specifically allows me to filter a little bit of what’s interesting and what’s not.”
In addition to writing code to decipher data, Frelund works in consulting gigs for teams not related to her media ventures, oftentimes helping with structuring analytics departments, selecting databases and asking salient questions to elicit strong answers. Upholding integrity and deviating from television content has helped her avoid conflicts of interest in this space.
“We fully define the problem, the scope, all of the dynamics of it,” Frelund said. “The thing that helps the team is really not something that we would talk about on TV. My producers define the segments, and the teams define the questions that they answer and deliver.”
Over the years, media companies have added sports media professionals who specialize in certain areas of the business. One of Frelund’s goals is to work on an NFL telecast in an analytics-based role in which she can break down the probabilities and make real-time adjustments based on various scenarios.
“Let’s not say, ‘The analytics would say, ‘Go for it,’’ Frelund outlined. “It’s like, ‘No, the yards, downs and distance would say, ‘Go for it,’ but that’s not the situation we find ourselves in.”
Frelund regularly evaluates what is happening within the space and looks for opportunities to contribute. The capabilities of artificial intelligence continue to proliferate, and rather than being averse to its evolution, she is finding ways to work with the systems and maintain the pace of innovation. As she dives into the calculations and empirical archetypes that presumably regulate determinants of success, Frelund is not losing sight of other variables and denoting implicit synergy between these measurements amid ostensible differentiation.
“It used to be called ‘Big Data,’” Frelund said, “…but as it keeps growing and expanding, [I want to keep] growing and expanding my ability to invest and to be a part of things that aren’t necessarily camera-facing, but rather impactful from, ‘How do you get more people that are into the space doing good things [in] the place they need to be seen by the right people in order to grow?’”
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