A few weeks back, this column covered a Pew Research Center study gauging public support for the federal subsidy for public broadcasting. I didn’t take a side on that issue but examined the “guts” of the survey and how a top-notch survey organization like Pew could end up, in my opinion, using a misleading question. I was also incredulous that 42% of the sample claimed not to have heard of National Public Radio. In that same spirit, let’s review the federal agency that oversees the Voice of America.
During the first 100 days of the Trump administration, the funding removal for the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) — which oversees the Voice of America along with Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, the Middle East Broadcasting Network, Radio and TV Marti (under the Office of Cuba Broadcasting) and the Open Technology Fund — was a hot topic.
The agency’s most recent estimates claim to have an unduplicated weekly reach (that’s “cume” to you and me) of 427 million people aged 15+ around the world. USAGM rightfully argues that the number is understated because, as they note, they have not been allowed to measure Mandarin and Cantonese listening in China since fiscal year 2018. Within China, USAGM cannot measure its Uyghur service in the Xinjiang province, as well as their Tibet service.
Also, as a student in Dr. Tim Rich’s Politics of North Korea class at WKU this semester, I understand USAGM’s inability to measure listening in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (which is neither democratic nor run for the vast majority of the people living there). If North Koreans get to listen to anything, it’s probably the greatest hits of Kim Jong Un (“Pyongyang’s number one station because we don’t allow any others!”).
Before we delve into the stats, let’s start by stating that surveying anything in Third World countries (or the newer term “Global South” if you prefer) is not easy. While some studies we see in North America are flawed, imagine trying to measure radio listening in Laos, Malawi, or Niger. There are vendors out there that can do it, but methodologies may vary based on the sampling and the costs involved.
I did my best to determine how USAGM asks their questions, and it wasn’t easy. I was able to glimpse a survey instrument at one point, and it used aided recall, in other words, something equivalent to “Did you listen to… in the past week?” or an equivalent question.
Regardless of your political viewpoint, wading through government websites to find information gives you a greater respect for Elon Musk and DOGE (even if you may have had no respect for that group in the first place). The government speaks an entirely different language. The words are in English, but aren’t words that the rest of us typically use or in the same order. It reminded me of reading a list of papers presented at an academic conference many years ago. The words were English, but none of them made any sense.
If you don’t know what aided recall is, imagine if the Nielsen diary service had a list of stations and asked if you listened to any of them in the past week. Would you take a bet on having higher cumes than you have now? Yes indeed.
In 2019, a retired USAGM analyst published a piece on the University of Southern California Center for Public Diplomacy website entitled “The USAGM Audience Increase: Less Startling Than Meets the Eye,” which questioned a large bump in the reported audience size from 2017 to 2018. Kim Elliott suggested that a change in methodology caused the big bump and since that time, USAGM has shown more year-over-year growth. The accusation that a methodological change can move estimates is no different than the change from the “five-minute rule” to the “three-minute rule” in PPM. Listening estimates went up.
The purpose here is not to indict USAGM’s audience estimates as much as it is to encourage you to always ask questions. Even the best research has flaws but that doesn’t mean you can’t trust it or make decisions based on the results. The point is, when an organization like USAGM says they have a weekly cume of over 400 million people 15+ without counting China, you may want to become a Missouri native and say “Show me.” If you understand how the sausage was made, you can sit down and enjoy the meal or toss it in the trash.
At this point, I’d usually write “Let’s meet again next week”, but if you’re planning to attend the BSM Summit in Chicago later this week, let’s meet in person. While I’m not on the agenda, I’ll be in attendance and look forward to catching up with old friends and meeting new ones. If you want to talk about research and ratings — truly one of the top cocktail party topics — we can do that, but arguing about the NHL playoffs will also work. Hope to see some of you later this week.
For the rest of you, let’s meet again next week.
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