Roger Goodell is a smart businessman. He’s no slouch when it comes to finding ways to enrich the pockets of NFL owners, because that who he works for. Since taking over the helm in 2006, the NFL has grown in reach, value, and revenue. Franchise values are through the roof. Viewership is as high as ever before. He’s helped build the league from competing with MLB, NBA, and the NHL to competing with Google and Apple.
His words, not mine.
Speaking of Goodell’s words. He gave an interview to CNBC’s Alex Sherman yesterday in which he mentioned that the NFL “could” begin to renegotiate its media deals as soon as next year. Keyword there is “could.” There are several reasons why this shouldn’t happen. But most of all, why would Goodell even consider a move next year in the first place?
The NFL signed an 11-year, $111 billion media rights deal in 2021, solidifying the league’s action to be housed on Disney (ESPN), NBCUniversal (NBC Sports), CBS Sports, and FOX Sports. Each of those networks reportedly pays $9 billion each season until the 2033 expiration. Amazon was also part of the agreement for Thursday Night Football at a reported annual rate of $1 billion per season through the length of the agreement.
Since signing that deal, the league has also inked other rights agreements with YouTube and Netflix. A three-year agreement with Netflix was signed in 2024 at a reported $75 million per season for one day’s worth of games. YouTube serves as the home of the NFL Sunday Ticket since the 2023 season, with this year’s Chargers vs. Chiefs Week One regular season game as an extension of that agreement.
Pump The Brakes
With all the info out of the way. It’s important to note that with all these rights agreements, the league has an opt-out clause for all its media rights deals following the 2029–2030 season. Everyone except their deal with Disney (ESPN), which has an additional year tacked on.
The same company that owns ESPN is also seeking league approval for a 10% stake in the ownership of ESPN.
Do you see the red alarm bells going off yet? Can Roger Goodell, with his success in building the league, in good faith enter a rights negotiation with a partner for which they are still seeking approval for minority ownership?
That smells a little fishy for both sides. Would there be a sense that a hometown discount could be applied for the league’s newest potential acquisition? That wouldn’t look good for anyone.
For that reason alone, the league should pump the brakes on any sort of rights renegotiations until that acquisition is approved. It favors the league and all its partners—and potential partners—to do so.
Then you have to ask the question: Why would Goodell say such a thing? Why would the commissioner put the nugget out there that the league is more than willing to talk to its partners as soon as next year if they so choose?
Goodell Playing the Long Game
Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done because he wants to do it. Roger Goodell is a great leader and representative for the NFL. Last year, according to Sports Business Journal, total NFL revenue cleared $23 billion. With league growth over 4% every year since Goodell took over.
The goal for Goodell in 2010 was to get the league to $25 billion by 2027. He’s already ahead of schedule, leading me to ask: Why next year, and not the year after?
If you’re in the NFL business, business is really good. With technology consistently evolving and new players entering the space, why rush?
Of course, television networks want a little more security with their media rights deals at today’s pricing. What network wouldn’t pay a little more for a little more time on their agreement in the nature of rights deals today?
Is that what Roger Goodell wants? Wouldn’t rushing negotiations next year potentially make the league and the owners he represents less revenue?
Sit and Wait Approach
NFL football is the most-watched content on television right now. Regular season game viewership shatters championship series of every other sport in North America. There’s nothing on television that can touch the NFL.
Waiting another year until the end of the 2026–2027 season would be the best option for Goodell. The approval of the ESPN acquisition would be completed. Waiting an additional year would allow networks to settle their plans for potential costs. While the NFL can see how trends in viewership develop with the NBA’s new agreements and MLB’s new agreements coming later this year. It would also give Goodell a full additional year to adapt to an 18-game schedule. With the players union approving more football to purchase by networks as part of their deals.
Also, Goodell could use the added year to continue his own contract talks. His current deal runs through March 2027. Why not add in more record viewership and record revenue with more games available for purchase before signing on the dotted line?
There are some reasons why the NFL and Roger Goodell might be open to renegotiating their media rights deals next year. However, there are more reasons for Goodell to wait an additional year. The benefits of waiting far outweigh the risks.
Goodell runs a league that has no plans for his successor, especially with Brian Rolapp’s departure earlier this year to become PGA Tour CEO. He leads a charge for more football, including more international games. With a rising salary cap, a labor deal with the NFLPA almost seems certain, as players are being paid more to play more games.
There is simply more benefit for Goodell, the NFL, the NFLPA, and the team owners to wait and see. Roger Goodell could be considered the single greatest businessman to ever run a professional sports league, holding a royal flush among his contemporaries.
Why rush when you’re holding all the cards.
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John Mamola is Barrett Media’s sports editor and daily sports columnist. He brings over two decades of experience (Chicago, Tampa/St Petersburg) in the broadcast industry with expertise in brand management, sales, promotions, producing, imaging, hosting, talent coaching, talent development, web development, social media strategy and design, video production, creative writing, partnership building, communication/networking with a long track record of growth and success. He is a five-time recognized top 20 program director in a major market via Barrett Medi’s Top 20 series and has been honored internally multiple times as station/brand of the year (Tampa, FL) and employee of the month (Tampa, FL) by iHeartMedia. Connect with John by email at John@BarrettMedia.com.
