When I had my first music director job in Detroit, I used to call the Harmony House record stores and get their top 20 selling singles and albums each week. After I built a relationship with one of the stores and they reported that the new Prince song was #1, I was told why it was a hit song.
Seems the Warner Bros. promotion guy gave the store “clean” or non-promotional copies of the single, so they would hype the report to the radio people who called. I was shocked… data manipulation.
When the Data Was Dirty From the Start
The story only got worse. When I confronted the Warner rep, he told me that the labels were even using people in their offices to call studio lines and request their latest releases.
So, for those of you programming gold off 80’s Billboard charts, just know some of those chart positions were dictated by what the record companies wanted. But yes, Prince was a real hit artist; he just needed a little help getting started.
Streaming Fraud: The New Version of an Old Game
Fast forward to today, when I’m reading about manipulation of streaming and social media data. One company even promoted that they could provide those services on their website.
Companies that promise guaranteed streams usually rely on things like bot networks, click farms, or incentivized listening loops. That directly violates the terms of the streaming platforms.
Over time, the fallout can include removal of fake streams and loss of royalties tied to those plays. However, in the short term, it can dupe a programmer looking for reliable data and a breakout hit.
Why Callout Research Is Only Part of the Answer
What we are left with is callout. For those who have it in their budget, you know that can sway from week to week even more than the Nielsen ratings. It’s all about the sample. A handful of respondents in a metro of millions is bound to produce wobbles.
Research companies are subjected to the same issues as Nielsen — finding people willing to participate. In a world where you get a survey every time you visit a restaurant or make a purchase, companies who provide sample for research vendors are struggling.
Callout is also an ongoing tribute to the established hits that are quickly recognizable with a short hook. Unfamiliar songs do not usually score well.
The Safest Way to Find a Hit Song
So how do you find new music? We all know playing a bad song is a bigger tune-out than playing commercials. The best strategy is to proceed with caution.
When in doubt, leave it out. You’re only going to get hurt in Nielsen by what you program; rarely will listeners miss a new song on your station. A handful of superstars are the only exception to that rule.
Let the Big Stations Do the Heavy Lifting
Monitor the biggest stations that have the most to lose by playing stiffs.
Take Z100 in New York or KIIS in LA — they are not going to play a bad song 100 times a week. Just because they add a new release doesn’t mean it’s a hit. A song with 20 spins a week may never get played when their listeners are awake. But for a song to make power on any highly rated top 5 market station, there is research involved.
If a song starts on WKSC in Chicago, moves to power, and gets added to WBBM and WTMX, you’ve got a hit.
Why Mediabase May Be Your Most Valuable Tool Right Now
While I hate to advocate for a barter product, Mediabase may end up being the most valuable tool in today’s environment. Certainly not for their charts, but for the data on the stations you should be monitoring. All of us want to be leaders.
But unless you have the resources of a station like Z100, it’s much safer to be a follower.
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Jim Ryan is a Music Radio columnist for Barrett Media. In addition, he runs Jim Ryan Media LLC, a consulting company which assists major market radio brands and top talent including national radio personality Delilah. Prior to relaunching his consultancy in 2025, Jim spent 15 years with Audacy/CBS Radio, serving as SVP of Programming. Among his responsibilities included programming WNEW-FM and WCBS-FM. His career includes additional programming stops in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Houston. Jim was voted the #2 PD of 2024 in Barrett Media’s Top 20 series in the AC category. He can be reached by email at Jim@JimRyanMedia.com.
