Last year, new methodologies from Nielsen helped propel Super Bowl viewership to ‘new heights’. Chiefs-Eagles on Fox set a new record, totaling 127.7M viewers across all legal platforms in the US.
Super Bowl LX offers a different set of circumstances. This time around there is no Patrick Mahomes. Instead, NBC has a matchup between two teams that few people at the start of the season would have projected to make it this far. How will this impact viewership? Is there a path for NBC to top Fox?
Super Bowl 49 Rematch
The Seahawks and Patriots square off in a Super Bowl rematch, eleven years removed from Malcolm Butler’s stunning goal line interception. In a bit of irony, NBC was also the broadcaster of that game. I am of the belief—and I am not alone in this—that had Nielsen employed the same techniques it uses presently to measure viewers, Super Bowl XLIX would to this day be the most-watched program in US television history.
The hype for XLIX was unreal. This was Seattle’s attitude era. Legion of Boom. Marshawn Lynch and his Skittles, only here so he ‘won’t get fined’. Many considered Russell Wilson to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory. The team was looking to go back-to-back. That iteration of the Seahawks captured the nation’s attention, no small feat for a franchise located in the Pacific Northwest.
The Patriots of course had Tom Brady and while frequent Super Bowl participants, they were still reeling from consecutive heartbreaking title game losses to the Giants several years’ back. The early days of the DeflateGate investigation loomed large. There was a distinct narrative being brandished about questioning whether they could ever get the job done again. The game was a pick ’em at kickoff. Many expected it to be a compelling and close contest.
And it delivered.
Pros and Cons of the Super Bowl LX Matchup
It’s pretty safe to say LX does not garner the same amount of hype. Make no mistake, Mike Macdonald and Mike Vrabel both deserve tremendous praise for the turnarounds they have orchestrated. This version of the Seahawks and Patriots certainly have talented skill players—Jaxon Smith-Njigba, former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs to name a few—but they aren’t exactly household names. The most intriguing personality is probably Mack Hollins with his bare feet and WARRIORS chant. Cool but nevertheless he’s not a WR #1 or #2. There are not many big personalities here who are capable of driving ratings.
The same can be said of the starting quarterbacks. With all due respect to Sam Darnold and Drake Maye, neither has the luster of Patrick Mahomes. Seattle has a vaunted defense and the Pats’ D similarly has stepped it up in the postseason. The casual viewer though isn’t particularly interested in that level of X’s and O’s. When it comes to an event of this magnitude, perhaps key above all else is the extent the casual viewer, the person who’s not obsessed with sports, who only watches a handful of games a year, is engaged. These two teams, despite their storied histories, are no longer part of the cultural zeitgeist they once were. At initial glance, early signs point to LX falling short of LIX’s viewership watermark.
How NBC Can Prevail
There is a way NBC can come out on top over Fox though. It starts with a unique card up their sleeve which could serve as a useful tool to attract the casual viewer. This month the network has the trifecta of the Super Bowl, the Winter Olympics, and the NBA All-Star Game. Surely by now you’ve caught one of their ‘Legendary February’ promotions—they’re everywhere. The idea here is that each of these events in turn promotes the others.
Obviously the Super Bowl is the golden goose, towering over the other two properties. Network execs nevertheless believe they have crafted an environment that lifts all ships. While the Winter Games aren’t the ratings juggernaut as their Summer counterpart, the Olympics are that type of sporting event which the casual viewer typically finds compelling enough to watch. Expect NBC to use the Opening Ceremony on Friday, two days before the Super Bowl, as a springboard for attracting more casual viewers on Sunday.
Similar to four years ago, NBC again is utilizing the Olympics as lead-out programming for the Super Bowl. Just after the confetti drops and the Lombardi Trophy is presented, NBC jumps right back into its Milan Cortina 2026 coverage. They are presented with quite the challenge. Earlier on Super Bowl Sunday, decorated skier Lindsey Vonn returned to the Olympic stage at age 41. It was already one of the top stories of these Games, made even more compelling by the fact she had ruptured her ACL just over a week ago but would still compete. A video of her doing a series of intense leg exercises mere days before the downhill quickly went viral. This had the makings of an epic comeback. Unfortunately, it was not to be—mere seconds into her run Vonn suffered a devastating crash and subsequently had to be airlifted.
The whole ordeal was rough to watch live. Now, NBC has to decide how they’ll cover this moment when they show taped coverage of the downhill in primetime. As a longtime Olympics broadcaster they are used to adjusting on the fly. They may have to do so here. Will they edit out anything—her screaming, the number of replays, the crowd’s reactions? The shift in tone from Super Bowl euphoria to haunting images of an American hero suffering a literal and figurative fall is a difficult undertaking.
It’s made slightly easier by the fact Vonn’s compatriot Breezy Johnson took Gold in the event. Still, it’s not an enviable task for any broadcaster. Surely, once the clock hits triple zeroes at the Super Bowl everyone will already know what happened to Vonn. Many surely will stay up to watch this moment unfold either again or for the first time, regardless of what happens between Seattle and New England. The framing is different—it is more a story of tragedy than triumph—but eyeballs will be glued to it. Having the Olympics as shoulder programming can only help the Super Bowl. It might not make an enormous difference, but undoubtedly it will add to the game’s final viewership average.
The Nielsen and Bad Bunny Effect
This is the second Super Bowl which Nielsen will include its expanded out-of-home (OOH) metric, which has been an absolute boon to NFL and college football broadcasts. This is the first Super Bowl which Nielsen will apply their “Big Data + Panel” (instead of their previous Panel only) methodology. OOH is more responsible for recent increases than Big Data but the latter without question will provide a further boost. NBC will also include their Adobe Analytics numbers in their final total, as is network policy. NBC is also in more households than last year’s broadcaster Fox.
Then of course there’s the streaming component. Peacock finally broke out of its doldrums and gained 3M subscribers in Q4, reaching a total of 44M. Peacock is behind a paywall / needs authentication from a cable or satellite provider. That’s in contrast to Fox from last year, who made the Big Game available on the free ad-supported television (FAST) platform Tubi, which only required an email address. Economics aside, it should come as no surprise that Fox here has the advantage, given the easier level of access.
Bad Bunny could also play a role here. The artist, coming off his Grammy win for Album of the Year, takes the mic for the Halftime Show. His selection has not come without controversy. A vocal opponent of ICE, Bad Bunny doubled down on his stance in his Grammys acceptance speech one Sunday ago. He also sings exclusively in Spanish, something English-speaking audiences may not be accustomed to. Given his stardom among the Latino community, expect Telemundo to outperform the typical Super Bowl Spanish-language broadcast. The bigger question becomes whether English-language viewers will tune in at the same levels at which they usually do for halftime performances and whether his political stance will turn some people away.
Key Issues
Everything else being equal, a closer game will result in more people watching. Last year’s game was far from a barn burner as the Eagles quickly jumped out to an insurmountable lead. Given the lopsided result, many were tempted to ‘turn this TV off’ but surely a sizable percentage nevertheless stuck around just to affirm the Chiefs were in fact mortal. They wanted to witness the fall. Unlike their matchup from eleven years ago, Seattle is the hands-down favorite. The on-field product from the Patriots offense has left much desired this postseason.
Many also question whether the Patriots are a legitimate contender or the beneficiary of one of the league’s all-time easiest schedules. Likewise, while Darnold had a great NFC Championship, he still is best known for his collapses. If LX gets out of hand early in favor of either squad it’s hard to imagine people will be as keen to stick around as they did for Eagles-Chiefs.
There are other factors which could tip the scales one way or the other. Another impact of the Chiefs’ absence: no Taylor Swift storyline this time around. Do not underestimate the impact of that. Like an envious ex keeping tabs on their old lover who’s undergone a glow up, the greater NYC market will tune in to see Darnold. California residents may be more interested in a local Super Bowl than one held in New Orleans. Vast portions of the US have been subjected to colder than average weather the past couple weeks, which could keep public get-togethers down (of course people can choose to just watch at home so it could net out). Breaking political news could siphon off people’s attention.
Expectations
To be clear, Seahawks-Patriots is far from the worst-case scenario. If things shook out differently in the earlier rounds of the playoffs we could have been presented with a matchup of ‘small-market teams’ like the Panthers and Jaguars. It also could have been a lot better. Imagine what a Bears game would have garnered. In LX we get to address the question of how immune the NFL is to a Super Bowl matchup without marquee names.
People are quick to forget, but there was undoubtedly some fatigue surrounding Chiefs-Eagles in New Orleans. It was the second time they squared off for the Lombardi in 3 years. Still, LIX without question is far sexier than LX.
Barring a complete slugfest of a game, Seahawks-Patriots has a pathway to hit a higher reported figure. The new Big Data methodology, the additional Adobe Analytics numbers, Olympics shoulder programming, presumably a larger Latino audience tuning in, plus some ahem, ‘prodding’ from interested parties for Nielsen to ‘capture’ every viewer could be enough to tip the scales in NBC’s favor.
Jake Kline is an attorney specializing in sports and entertainment law. He can be reached at jake.a.kline@gmail.com. Follow him on X/Twitter @JakeAKline.
