I know soccer. Not in the “I watched Ted Lasso and now I understand the offside rule” way. I played goalie growing up, and good enough to make a travel team. We played tournaments in Canada and spent plenty of weekends getting yelled at by parents who thought every goal was somehow my fault.
So when the World Cup rolls around every four years and America has its annual soccer identity crisis, I understand the sport. I appreciate the skill, and respect the global obsession. I just don’t buy the same question we ask every single time: “Is this finally the moment soccer becomes one of America’s major sports?”
No.
Next question.
The more interesting question is what the early numbers from this World Cup tell us about who we are as a sports nation. Not what soccer could become someday, or whether America can ever become Brazil, Argentina or Germany. We’ve been asking that question for decades.
The better question is what the television ratings, social media engagement and audience growth tell us about soccer’s place in America right now. The answer is both encouraging and revealing.
Must-See TV
Last week’s U.S. opener against Paraguay averaged nearly 18 million viewers on FOX Sports. It became the most-watched U.S. Men’s National Team telecast ever and the most-watched English-language World Cup group-stage match in American television history. Add in the Spanish-language audience, and the total approached 25 million viewers.
Those are not niche numbers, or “good for soccer” numbers. Those are real numbers.
For comparison, Mexico’s opener against South Africa drew more than six million viewers in the United States. The largest audience ever for a World Cup group-stage match on English-language television that didn’t involve the United States.
Again, real numbers. The World Cup is clearly a major television event in America.
However, before we start engraving soccer’s face onto Mount Rushmore alongside football, baseball and basketball, let’s pump the brakes.
Fútbol Isn’t Football (Yet)
A recent survey found 32 percent of Americans planned to watch the World Cup. That sounds impressive until you realize 70 percent planned to watch the Super Bowl and 58 percent planned to watch the Winter Olympics. The World Cup is growing. The NFL is living on a different planet.
That’s not a criticism of soccer. It’s just reality.
America’s relationship with soccer is different from its relationship with football. Football is religion. The World Cup is an event, and that’s where I think many soccer evangelists miss the point. Every four years, they see the ratings spike, jerseys worn, flags waived, and the packed watch parties. They assume America is finally converting.
Maybe we’re not converting. Maybe we’re just attending the holiday.
Because that’s what the World Cup increasingly resembles in America: the Olympics with shin guards. It’s a massive global event that temporarily captures our attention, and sparks patriotism. It creates a few household names and then largely retreats to its normal place in the sports hierarchy. That’s not failure. That’s actually success.
Soccer doesn’t need to become the NFL to matter. The numbers suggest it already matters. Nielsen reports North America’s soccer fan base has grown nearly 11 percent over the last five years. Interest in the World Cup itself has risen significantly compared to 2022. Younger demographics continue to embrace the sport. The MLS is healthier than it has ever been. Lionel Messi changed the visibility of the domestic game almost overnight.
The trend line is undeniable. The destination is where people get confused.
Already Arrived
I’ve worked in sports media for three decades. Every four years, somebody asks if this is finally soccer’s breakthrough moment. At some point, we have to stop asking whether soccer is arriving and start recognizing that it already has.
I don’t think soccer is headed toward becoming America’s favorite sport. I think it’s becoming America’s fifth sport, and that is a remarkable achievement. The NFL owns Sundays. College football owns Saturdays. Baseball owns summer traditions. The NBA owns social media. The NHL still owns parts of the northern map and somehow generates more passion than its television ratings would suggest.
Soccer exists differently. It owns moments.
The World Cup. The Women’s World Cup. Messi. International competition. The occasional Champions League match that reminds Americans there are sporting atmospheres on Earth that make a Knicks championship parade in New York look like a library.
That’s the lane.
The U.S. now heads into a second-round matchup against Australia carrying genuine momentum. The women remain a global powerhouse. Our U.S. men are competitive. The ratings are strong, audience is younger, and fan base is growing.
If you’re looking for evidence that soccer is about to overtake baseball, basketball or football, you’re reading the wrong numbers. The real story isn’t that America has fallen in love with soccer. It’s that America has finally decided soccer belongs.
Not as king. Not as a challenger. Just as a permanent member of the family.
For a sport that spent decades trying to convince Americans it mattered, that’s a much bigger victory than another round of “Could we someday become Brazil?” We’ve been asking that question every four years for as long as I can remember.
The ratings are finally giving us a better one.
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With decades of experience behind the mic, John Lund is more than a sports commentator and weekly columnist for Barrett Media—he’s a storyteller, humorist, and true fan. He’s hosted shows in mid sized markets like Pittsburgh and Salt Lake City to larger cities like San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas. John has even hosted nationally on ESPN Radio. Known for his sharp wit and deep sports knowledge, John welcomes your feedback. Reach him on X @JohnLundRadio or by email at John@JohnLundRadio.com.
