For many Americans, the Super Bowl is more than just the game itself. It comes with concert events, a global halftime show, and commercials never seen anywhere else, all paired with endless dips and drinks at home. For six decades and counting, the NFL’s Super Bowl has represented the largest slice of Americana this country holds close to its chest.
It is also big business. This year, a 30-second Super Bowl ad can cost up to $10 million, a new record and $2 million more than last year. For perspective, during Super Bowl XXXV, 25 years ago, the highest price tag was $2.2 million. That figure would not even get a company into the conversation today.
With that kind of money involved, rules matter. Like any major sporting event, the NFL and its broadcast partners prohibit certain categories of advertising due to controversial subject matter. While the full list is not public, common sense applies. You are not going to see the Marlboro Man scrolling PornHub in a Super Bowl advertisement. Last week, reports surfaced that prediction market commercials have joined that prohibited list. That raises a fair question: Is this about controversy, or is it about control?
I am not a legal expert on prediction market trading. What is clear, however, is that prediction markets represent another way to wager on sports outcomes, which places them squarely adjacent to sports gambling. Some may dispute that comparison, but the logic mirrors the moneyline offered by sportsbooks everywhere, which asks the same question without explicitly spelling it out.
Chances are, you have already seen ads for prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood. They have appeared on televisions, mobile devices, and nearly every social feed imaginable.
The concept itself is straightforward. Prediction markets are federally regulated and allow users to trade on yes-or-no outcomes of real-world events. That includes sports, and the structure closely resembles stock trading. Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets do not require state-by-state approval. Instead, they fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That regulatory difference has real consequences. Prediction markets have already begun cutting into sportsbook revenue. According to ESPN.com, Citizens equity research analyst Jordan Bender estimates Super Bowl betting at U.S. sportsbooks will drop 2% year over year. Why, prediction markets are a big reason.
The numbers back that up. On championship weekend alone, more than $79 million was traded on the winner of the AFC Championship Game at Kalshi alone.
Not surprisingly, sportsbooks have responded by developing their own versions of prediction markets to navigate regulatory gray areas. In the process, the American Gaming Association no longer counts DraftKings or FanDuel among its members.
That context makes the NFL’s decision to prohibit prediction market advertising particularly intriguing.
In December, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller submitted written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture expressing “concerns regarding the potential impact of sports-related events contracts on the integrity of our games,” especially in states where sports betting remains illegal.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell echoed that sentiment at a Genius Sports event. “That’s not something we’re about to enter into,” Goodell said, noting the league would not participate in prediction markets without a regulatory framework. He also emphasized the league’s desire for greater comfort regarding risks to competitive integrity.
Yet FanDuel and DraftKings already offer prediction-style products. Both companies will flood Super Bowl broadcasts with advertisements. If prediction markets pose such a threat, why are those companies still welcome?
Their sportsbooks are not legal in every state either. I live in Florida, where Hard Rock Bet is the only option, yet I still see constant FanDuel and DraftKings ads. Meanwhile, recent FBI arrests tied to gambling-related scandals have only heightened concerns about integrity across sports.
Anyone who believes those issues will stop here is not paying attention.
Which leads to the uncomfortable question. Is this really about integrity, or is it about money?
The NFL is the most powerful sports brand in the United States and shows no signs of slowing down. Even so, it does not accept advertising dollars from major prediction market platforms like Kalshi or Robinhood.
Other leagues do. Major League Soccer and the NHL have partnerships in place. So do major media organizations, including CNN, CNBC, Yahoo, and The Wall Street Journal.
That leaves a few possibilities. Perhaps the NFL is protecting existing partnerships. Maybe it is prioritizing clients already inside the tent by not accepting revenue from a intrusive competitor. Or maybe it is signaling that exclusivity comes at a higher price for their existing client, and newcomers need not apply.
That may explain why the prohibited advertising list remains private. A public list would require consistency and regular updates. Flexibility allows the league to adjust as business interests evolve without public knowlegde.
If prediction markets were truly unacceptable, the NFL would sever ties with sportsbooks that operate similar products. Instead, it continues to welcome their advertising dollars while shutting out competitors.
The league’s integrity argument also rings hollow when history suggests that game-fixing is inevitable. MLB and the NHL have already faced those realities recently. As legalized betting expands and prediction markets become mainstream, the risks will follow.
The NFL does not need prediction market money. It is already the richest league in professional sports. Still, drawing a hard line against prediction markets while embracing sportsbook partners that provide the same offering during the Super Bowl feels less like principle and more like positioning.
Seen through that lens, the decision looks strategic. Prediction markets are acceptable when they fit neatly within existing relationships, but problematic when they threaten the league’s preferred business model.
That contradiction invites scrutiny.
In a Super Bowl defined by billion-dollar deals and tightly managed partnerships, the line between integrity and economics has never been thinner.
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John Mamola is Barrett Media’s sports editor and daily sports columnist. He brings over two decades of experience (Chicago, Tampa/St Petersburg) in the broadcast industry with expertise in brand management, sales, promotions, producing, imaging, hosting, talent coaching, talent development, web development, social media strategy and design, video production, creative writing, partnership building, communication/networking with a long track record of growth and success. He is a five-time recognized top 20 program director in a major market via Barrett Medi’s Top 20 series and has been honored internally multiple times as station/brand of the year (Tampa, FL) and employee of the month (Tampa, FL) by iHeartMedia. Connect with John by email at John@BarrettMedia.com.
