The Barrett Media Summit starts tomorrow in NYC, and the timing is auspicious. While I typically talk about research issues, let’s think — as some background for the conference — about what we’re seeing in this revolutionary period for electronic media.
Some recent actions highlight the continuing revolution. After over 70 years on TV, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada is no more. Counting radio, HNIC lasted 95 years, nearly as long as CBS News Radio, but not as long as Mel Brooks, who turned 100 yesterday. And the BBC turned off its longwave radio service last weekend after 92 years, with some talk about whether the BBC should operate over-the-air radio and TV services in the UK in the age of streaming.
Two recent columns on this revolution caught my eye. First, The Economist‘s Schumpeter column — a weekly commentary in the business section (The Economist doesn’t use bylines) — had a piece about the World Cup entitled “Tournament of Losers,” with a subhead of “The World Cup is a festival for corporate has-beens,” in the June 20 issue.
The World Cup’s Fading Corporate Champions
Isn’t the World Cup the biggest sporting event on the planet, or at least even with the Olympics? From FIFA’s standpoint, yes, and they have the revenue to prove it. However, Schumpeter pointed out the following:
- Of the sports brands that make the kit for the teams, the three biggest — Adidas, Nike, and Puma — are all worth less than they were when France won in 2018.
- The beer companies are hurting. Depending on which country makes it to the finals, brewers expect the World Cup alone to increase beer consumption by 0.2% to 0.3% for the entire year. But Schumpeter noted that the English team, followed by some heavier drinkers, includes players wearing Whoop tracking devices, and the team captain endorses Oura rings. Not what you want to wear when drinking multiple beers, as you’ll be told the alcohol isn’t good for you.
- Betting is big, but the stocks of DraftKings and Flutter — owner of FanDuel and other betting sites — are down substantially this year. If you haven’t noticed, the stock market overall is doing quite well, thank you.
The big brands are trending down, just as in media. As an aside, did you notice that a deodorant brand, Rexona, has its logo on the underarms of World Cup officials? Makes me wonder if a company that makes athletic cups approached a league.
Streaming’s Promise and Its Problems
The Financial Times ran a column last Thursday by Robert Armstrong, “The Future of TV: Lots of Choices, Lots of Hassle.” Armstrong traced the move from cable — which he felt was bad for consumers because you had to buy everything to view what you wanted (how many channels were in your package that you never watched?) — to streaming. Remember Bruce Springsteen’s “57 Channels (and Nothin’ On)”?
But streaming is only a partial answer. Yes, you can choose what you want when you want on either a pay basis for the good stuff or free with FAST channels. However, being “big” isn’t enough. Netflix is doing fine, but Paramount Skydance felt the need to go after Warner Bros. Discovery — merger still pending — because Paramount+ alone didn’t have scale. Add HBO Max and Discovery+ along with the still-viable cable networks like Turner (TBS, TNT, CNN, etc.) and the company becomes a player.
Meanwhile, Fox is buying Roku to access the millions of sets with Roku boxes or Roku built in — we have four. Lots of FAST channels to add to Fox One, Fox Nation, and the cable operations of Fox News, Fox Weather, Fox Business, and Fox Sports, and it might work. That made the $22 billion price tag for Roku worthwhile, even if Fox overpaid.
Armstrong noted that despite all that financial maneuvering, the younger demo heads to YouTube and TikTok. The idea of very short “microdramas” — two minutes or so per episode — an idea imported from China, fits with constantly shrinking attention spans. Armstrong suggested the production quality of these bite-size videos will improve as well, thanks to AI.
Then there is sports. How many platforms do you need if you’re a big fan of any of the major sports leagues? And the cost? Armstrong’s conclusion? Lower profits — if any — and an even more annoying experience for consumers.
Which brings us to US radio. I’m sure some of the discussions at the Summit will be about the latest round of enforced departures at iHeart, as well as cuts at other companies. The corporate folks can spin it any way they wish to make the RIFs look like a step forward, but more good people are on the beach, and our industry is worse off for it.
Each year, I donate to the Broadcasters Foundation of America, and I’ve made larger donations over the last couple of years. Last week was the BFOA’s Giving Day, but if you missed it and you still have a good job, send them some money. My guess is that BFOA will be receiving more requests for aid this year.
We are living through a media revolution, and if anyone claims to know where things are going, be sure to check back in a few years and see how far their projections were from reality. I could offer some thoughts, but I’ve been wrong so often that it’s not worth trying.
Let’s meet again next week, and if you’re attending the Barrett Media Summit, let’s catch up or meet for the first time. I’ll be there all three days — and even in my semi-retired state, learning, picking up new ideas, and seeing lots of good people.
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