Before we dive into the radio ratings and look at Nielsen, for a moment, let’s go back 43 years to the 1980 presidential campaign.
The date was October 28th and then-President Jimmy Carter and Republican nominee Ronald Reagan were engaged in their final debate before the election.
After the back-and-forth questions and answers, each candidate was given time for final comments. Reagan asked a question of the American people that resounded and helped him to his victory the next week. It was a simple question: “It might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago?”.
My purpose in raising that quote is to ask a modified version of Reagan’s question. In September 2013, Nielsen closed on the acquisition of Arbitron. After 64 years in business, whether as the American Research Bureau or the more familiar Arbitron brand, the company ceased to exist and became part of Nielsen.
Here we are ten years later and to paraphrase Reagan, those of us who use and pay for the company’s services should ask the question: “Are we better off than we were ten years ago?” I’ll offer some thoughts and it’s a question you may want to ponder as well.
Certainly, the radio industry has changed quite a bit in the last ten years. While streaming and podcasting was around ten years ago and SiriusXM was already over ten years old, the biggest streaming competition at the time was Pandora as Spotify had just reached the US in mid-2011. Competition for ears and eyes, while increasing, was nowhere near today’s level. The first Netflix-produced program, House of Cards, debuted in 2013. While high-speed internet penetration was over 70 percent in 2013, it’s over 90 percent today.
In 2013, Arbitron had 48 PPM markets and measured a total of 274 markets in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Today, Nielsen measures the 48 PPM markets and a total of 246 metros in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, which is probably more a reflection on the state of the industry rather than Nielsen cutting back on measured markets. No markets have chosen to go PPM since the initial 48 were started long ago.
Let’s review the smaller markets. The diary service is well…still the diary service. One big change over the last ten years was the move to continuous diary measurement reporting in the larger diary markets, alias the “book of the month club”. Two book averaging in the smallest markets was already in place in 2013. The other big change has been in the sampling. While Arbitron started measuring cell phone-only households in the diary service in 2009, Nielsen has had to move to an address-based sample frame complete with design weights to adjust for the change in the way households can be reached.
Recently, Nielsen announced that they are working on an online diary, 16 years after Arbitron’s initial attempt to bring an online component to the system. They also announced that you can now do a virtual diary review, something that has been requested for probably the last twenty to thirty years, negating the need to visit beautiful Columbia, Maryland to review what people did (or did not) enter in their diaries.
On the PPM side, progress has been slow as well. The form of the meter underwent a change to a wearable, something akin to a Fitbit, and is being rolled out to the entire panel. While this ends all the jokes about the meter’s similarity to a 1980s-era pager, it probably hasn’t made a serious impact on the quality of measurement.
In the meantime, the quest for full accreditation from the Media Rating Council continues. As of this writing, 30 PPM markets are accredited with 18 still in limbo, including some top ten markets such as New York, San Francisco, and Washington.
The sample size remains too small based on how much listening takes place in each market. At one point, Nielsen announced a ten percent sample increase and then reneged on that pledge, going for eight percent instead, claiming a “business decision”. The client software for the services remains essentially the same as in 2013. It took around five years before the Arbitron logo was updated in the PPM Analysis Tool. Tapscan has been updated from time to time as well as PD Advantage, but I don’t think any observer would suggest that the changes have been major.
Today, we still don’t have a good measure of demographic usage of streaming audio, whether for streamers or for the streams of radio stations. Triton still has the only system around, although Nielsen did try to enter the business around 2016-17. Their system could create demographics, but the industry rejected it, and yet Nielsen holds a patent for digital audio (US patent 10,699,286). I know because my name is on it with three other people.
Speaking of people, how many people has Nielsen let go over the past decade? As I’m writing this, Nielsen has begun another RIF that has changed the career path of a few more of my friends. Gosh, private equity cutting the number of employees…can you imagine?
Have there been PPM positives over the past decade? Let’s give Nielsen credit for the MCEM monitor that lets you know how well your encoding is working in real-time. Also, most PDs swear by the Control Panel Reports that come out ahead of each “monthly” and let you see your results at a more granular level.
Finally, there is the cost of the service. Yes, most everything was less expensive ten years ago, but as you review what you pay for the Nielsen service today compared to a decade ago, are you getting value for your money? If you feel the services you buy are worth the investment, congratulations! If not, ask yourself Reagan’s question, consider your answer, and ask what else you can do.
Let’s meet again next week.
A note: I hope you’ll be at the BNM Summit in Nashville this week. I’ll be attending and hope to meet many of you there.
