Much of this column’s content covers Nielsen Audio, whether to help you to better understand how to comprehend the data, use it to your advantage, or discuss the company’s policies and my take on them. It’s always Nielsen, which has a de facto monopoly on audio measurement for radio.
There are competitors. Eastlan has been around for a long time measuring small markets. Triton is the “go to” for streaming even though Nielsen reports some streaming data in PPM markets. Triton doesn’t offer demographic data, so what you’re seeing is how many streams are running at any given time and where the streams are going. Useful, but not a lot of depth.
What prompted this column was an article in Inside Radio last week. It cited a study reported in Ad Age suggesting that marketing and agency people at director level and above are fine with multiple measurement systems in video. Two out of three (sample size was 200 in the study from Advertiser Perceptions) said a multi-currency marketplace is the future. They felt the industry should limit itself to no more than five currencies.
Think about that data point from people at a reasonably high level who spend $5 million or more per year in television. A majority are trying new measures and expect to use multiple metrics. In the past, the argument from agencies was for one currency. This was so planners and buyers wouldn’t have to switch between two or more currencies when working on campaigns. It was one reason for the demise of Birch back in the early ‘90s. That’s why I had to sell a house in South Florida when the service was shut down by VNU.
Yet radio has only one serious currency. I don’t anticipate Eastlan making plans to take on Nielsen directly. There have been attempts to build alternative services over the years but with no success. That could mean that the industry is satisfied with Nielsen despite the high price, relatively small sample sizes, and limited service.
When I started at Arbitron in 1999, it was standard procedure that an Arbitron rep would make at least one in-person visit a year to each market. If you needed assistance, there was 24/7 customer service for software. Yes, a real human would answer the phone at 3am for a freaked-out PD that couldn’t sleep and wanted to dig deeper into data. Good luck with getting that kind of service in 2024.
Can we ever expect competition in the audio audience measurement space? If I had to bet on it, I’d say no (FanDuel and DraftKings both refused to take my wager). While the industry still generates around $15 billion in revenue per year, broadcast radio is not growing. That makes it less attractive for new entrants in the field. Also, any competitor would have to navigate the “moat” of Nielsen patents that protect their service. If I learned anything after Nielsen acquired Arbitron, it’s that Nielsen has good lawyers. They are willing to spend money on litigation.
Still, let’s speculate for a moment. Any new competitor would have to be a big data measure. That probably means some way of using cell phones perhaps combined with data coming from DTS AutoStage. The data could be matched up with other data sources, probably in a “clean room” situation where individual information is matched up to data from the phones. Add to that a projectable national panel that collects all audio usage (radio, satellite, streaming, podcasts) to smooth out demographic data. The national data would be adjusted for local markets.
For years, the question of using data from cell phones has arisen. One issue is that Apple prefers that any app have value to the owner of the phone beyond an activity like tracking your audio usage. We tried an experiment along those lines at Arbitron years ago and while our Android panel held up, the iPhone panel atrophied quickly. Perhaps the rules have changed, but this won’t be easy.
Maybe we give up the AQH measure which is getting antiquated anyway. Radio is being touted as a reach medium which is cume. Perhaps the industry pays less for national cume data that can be adjusted to fit local markets. A lot of modeling would be going on, but if you think that isn’t happening in video, I have a couple of bridges you may be interested in purchasing.
Of course, anything on this scale requires the industry to come together, something radio is not very good at doing. I’ve seen a number of good studies coming from CIMM, the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement. It should really be called CIVM, the Coalition for Innovative Video Measurement. They have no interest in audio or heaven forbid, print companies in the digital space. The word “media” is a plural. While CIMM does some really interesting work, the group is focused on one medium – video.
This column is “spitballing” but with some background on what can be accomplished. What would audio look like if we had only reach and much of the data were modeled? How would programming change? Would sales change that much? Think about it.
Let’s meet again next week.
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