New data from MoffettNathanson Research shows that linear TV advertising — comprising of local TV, broadcast networks, and cable networks — should expect declining advertising revenues.
In 2025, those sectors are experiencing a 7% decline compared to the previous year, the company shares. The news doesn’t get rosier in the future, with a 6% decrease projected in 2026, and an 8% drop forecasted for 2027.
However, ad-supported connected TV is expected to gain in the coming years, growing from a projected $16 billion in 2025 to $22 billion in 2027. That figure represents a 16% increase.
The company pointed to advantages held by Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon as reason for the moves.
“Without ad products that match the performance, targeting, and measurement advantages of the Big Tech Four, it’s hard to see CTV re-accelerating to prior lofty growth rates (with live sports going OTT remaining the key exception),” said MoffettNathanson co-founder and analyst Michael Nathanson.
“CTV is still growing, but the category is clearly decelerating, from outsized double-digit gains in recent years to a mid-teens trajectory going forward, as the easy lift from linear-to-CTV budget shifts fades and linear holds a floor thanks to sports and news,” he added.
In 2024, cable network advertising revenue was at $22.5 billion. That fell to $20.2 billion, according to MoffettNathanson. Broadcast networks saw a drop from $12.7 billion to $11.7 billion this year. Meanwhile, local TV advertising revenue fell from $21.6 billion last year to $16.9 in 2025, the projections show.
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