I first met Guy Zapoleon when he was running programming for Nationwide Communications and served as programmer for KHMX in Houston. Guy was the architect of the Hot AC format some 35 years ago. I met Guy to get his insights on the format as we were looking for something to attract an older audience than the Top 40 we were doing.
Guy is known as a musicologist. He writes an annual report on the state of hit music. Not surprising to those who follow hit music, he says we are still in the “doldrums” for the 6th straight year, but transitioning. You can read the details at GuyZapoleon.com.
There were only 18 consensus hits powered by 50% or more of the Top 40 stations for 2025 according to Guy. I asked a few programmers, why so few hits? The most prevalent response was “music sucks”.
Then I asked those who work for labels and promote the music. While wanting to remain nameless, they put the blame on radio. The over arching complaint was that radio relies on callout instead of streaming for hit verification. Some stations say they can’t get a fair read in callout until a song gets 600 spins on their station.
I went to the only source for accurate airplay information, Mediabase, and looked up America’s biggest Top 40 station, Z100. They are playing 3 songs that will cross that 600-spin barrier this week. Those songs are Zara Larsson’s “Crush” which they first played on 8/15, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Tears” which hit their air on 8/29 and “Ophelia” by Taylor Swift which was released and played on 10/3. “Ophelia” is their most played song and #1 on the chart at the moment. Taylor is, well, special.
But if radio doesn’t know if a song is a hit until four months of airplay, it’s easy to see why there were so few hits this year. I should note that 2 of the top 5 most played songs on Z100 by Alex Warren and Benson Boone were added to their playlist LAST winter. Talk about doldrums, it’s December.
Perhaps there is another reason that Top 40 needs as many spins as they do to confirm a hit.
The Hot AC companion format that is also pop based, exposes less current music than ever before. I looked at some of the biggest Hot AC’s in America. I discovered that WNEW in New York is 58% gold. KBIG in LA is 61%, and KDMX in Dallas is at 65%. Only WTMX keeps their gold percentage low at 39%, but due to a heavy recurrent rotation, still only 22% of their playlist is deemed current. Yes, slightly higher than the other stations who stand at 16%, 18% and 17% respectively. None of those stations are doing a lot to make a brand-new song familiar, but being the long tail to make a song a hit with those less passionate about music and be played at weddings in eternity.
These Hot AC gold percentages make sense when a programmer in that format says that there are few hits. When 60% of your playlist is made up of the greatest songs from the 90’s through 2023 it takes a lot to stand out. Would you rather hear the new Goo Goo Dolls song or “Iris”, one of the greatest songs ever recorded? How about when you’re in the mood for Ed Sheeran? I’m a huge fan of his, and I’d love to sing along with “Shape of You” rather than “Camera”.
Let’s go one step further into Mainstream AC. Programmers in this format strive to be relevant with currents, but they’re usually the worst testing songs on their station. I recently sorted a music test with a major market mainstream AC station. We rejected songs from the 80’s with better research scores than some of our best testing recurrents.
Clearly the bar has been raised for the music released today. Not many years ago, if you wanted to hear something from the past you had to wait until your local gold-based station played it. Your other choice was to go buy the album. Today, everyone has every song ever released to listen on demand.
When kids tell me that they would rather hear Led Zepplin than anything on today’s rock playlist I get it. So maybe the doldrums will be here to stay. We have an entirely new scale of comparison.
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Jim Ryan is a Music Radio columnist for Barrett Media. In addition, he runs Jim Ryan Media LLC, a consulting company which assists major market radio brands and top talent including national radio personality Delilah. Prior to relaunching his consultancy in 2025, Jim spent 15 years with Audacy/CBS Radio, serving as SVP of Programming. Among his responsibilities included programming WNEW-FM and WCBS-FM. His career includes additional programming stops in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Houston. Jim was voted the #2 PD of 2024 in Barrett Media’s Top 20 series in the AC category. He can be reached by email at Jim@JimRyanMedia.com.
