A term I grew to love working in sports radio was “advertising categories,” where we could attach a specific client to be the “official (fill in the blank with an advertising category) of (fill in the radio station)” for an elevated dollar figure in advertising revenue. We’d never avoid accepting the advertising dollars of competitors in a certain category, but those clients just wouldn’t earn the “official” designation. In other words, we air ads for Bud Light, but Coors Light is the “official beer of…” You get the picture.
Admittedly, I’m not the smartest rock in the bag when it comes to the difference between sportsbooks and prediction markets. While sportsbooks continue to fight for legality across the country, the legal prediction market boom in sports has been a fascinating watch. Sports leagues are taking advantage of that newfound interest and revenue. MLB and the NHL have already dived in with “official prediction market” agreements. The NBA is reportedly next.
Which leads me to a simple question: if they look the same, act the same, and let you risk money on the same outcomes, what exactly makes them different advertising categories? And should media companies and sports radio follow the same model?
Here’s the easiest way to look at it.
I live in Florida, where the only online sportsbook I can use is the Hard Rock Bet app. If I look at the over/under for tonight’s Charlotte Hornets–Orlando Magic game, I see 217.5 points. Then I go to a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket, and I’m seeing 218.5.
Different numbers, same concept, all sports. If I can put my own money down on the outcome in all three places, this stops being about definitions and starts becoming something else entirely. Because that’s where the confusion fades — and the strategy begins.
At face value, there is a structural difference. A sportsbook is taking wagers, setting lines, and holding a margin. A prediction market, as it’s being framed, facilitates trading on outcomes more like a financial exchange than a bookmaker.
That’s the clean, regulatory-friendly explanation.
But from a consumer standpoint — the person sitting on their couch deciding whether to throw $20 on the over — that distinction is meaningless. The interface looks the same. The outcomes are the same. The risk is the same. Call it a “contract” instead of a “bet” if you want. The behavior it drives doesn’t change, and leagues know that.
What they’ve found isn’t a new product — it’s a new category. But how?
Advertising categories were always about perception as much as product. You’re not just selling exclusivity, you’re selling differentiation. As long as something can be positioned as different, it can be sold as a separate lane.
That’s exactly what’s happening here.
Sportsbooks occupy one bucket. Prediction markets, thanks to regulatory gray area and some well-crafted semantics, occupy another. Never mind that both are competing for the same consumer dollars, often on the same games, sometimes with nearly identical lines. To the leagues, that overlap isn’t a problem — it’s an opportunity.
Because if you can convince one partner they own “official sportsbook” rights and another they own “official prediction market” rights, you’ve effectively turned one revenue stream into two. It’s the same logic that once allowed teams to have an “official beer,” an “official light beer,” and an “official import beer” all at the same time. It’s all beer, just different forms of beer.
Is it double dipping? From a purist standpoint, absolutely. From a business standpoint, it’s just smart packaging, and something that media companies and sports radio should look to copy.
Leagues have never been in the business of limiting revenue opportunities out of philosophical consistency. If anything, they’ve consistently shown a willingness to redraw lines — pun intended — whenever new money enters the ecosystem.
The more interesting question isn’t whether this is double dipping. It’s whether it’s sustainable.
Because eventually, one of two things is going to happen. Either regulators decide prediction markets function too much like sportsbooks to be treated differently, collapsing the categories into one.
Or sportsbooks themselves push back harder, especially as they expand into the same “prediction” space with products tied to FanDuel and DraftKings. Which are already “official league partners” spending millions in advertising revenue.
At that point, the argument becomes less about definitions and more about fairness — why pay a premium for exclusivity in a category that’s no longer exclusive?
At that point, the argument shifts from definitions to fairness: why pay a premium for exclusivity in a category that’s no longer exclusive? Until then, don’t expect leagues to slow down. They’re not choosing between sportsbooks and prediction markets. They’re choosing both — and selling each as if the other doesn’t exist.
There’s a lesson in that for networks and sports radio. Because in the end, advertising categories were never about clean lines. They were about how many lines you could draw — and how long you could get away with pretending they mattered.
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John Mamola is Barrett Media’s sports editor and daily sports columnist. He brings over two decades of experience (Chicago, Tampa/St Petersburg) in the broadcast industry with expertise in brand management, sales, promotions, producing, imaging, hosting, talent coaching, talent development, web development, social media strategy and design, video production, creative writing, partnership building, communication/networking with a long track record of growth and success. He is a five-time recognized top 20 program director in a major market via Barrett Medi’s Top 20 series and has been honored internally multiple times as station/brand of the year (Tampa, FL) and employee of the month (Tampa, FL) by iHeartMedia. Connect with John by email at John@BarrettMedia.com.
