It’s been a while, but the radio industry is being forced to give some attention to the Nielsen radio diary. Yes, the paper diary has been around so long that it’s almost eligible for Social Security, a true rarity in the world of survey methodology.
The reasons why the diary has hung around for such a long time are simple. While nothing is perfect, the radio diary works and is cost-effective. It’s easy for respondents to understand (the verbiage is meant to be at a sixth-grade level) and fill out. When you’re done, you just mail it back (postpaid, of course).
Still, everything must be updated eventually and for some time, we’ve had this thing called “the internet” which is used by nearly all of the United States population. Nielsen is right to take another go at adapting the diary to cyberspace.
If you’ve read my column regularly, then you know that Arbitron had an E-Diary back in 2007. It worked for the most part, but there were a couple of issues that caused its demise. Another attempt was made at Arbitron in the early 2010s with something called “Project Leapfrog”. While “Leapfrog” didn’t work out (a point I predicted internally well in advance), the company learned a few things.
Here we are in 2024 and now Nielsen is going at it again. This time, the name of the online diary is “mSurvey”. Participants will still receive incentives, but instead of those crisp dollar bills the company has been including with mailings for the last 60 years, online options will exist.
And “mSurvey” isn’t the only planned change. The initial screening questionnaire will also go online under the name “EScreener” (not very original, but the respondents won’t see that anyway). Again, it’s a positive move by Nielsen.
The big question will be around performance. What will response rates look like? More importantly for the client base, what will the listening levels look like? For now, Nielsen is telling us that they expect everything will look fine when this change comes into play, supposedly in late 2025.
Here’s what to look for: If I were to place a couple of dollars with FanDuel or Draft Kings, I’d bet that the online diary will have lower listening levels than the paper diary. My reasoning is the vertical “line” that is used in the paper diary to designate long listening sessions. Any radio person who has worked with the diary (and that’s most of you) and is having a confidential chat over a beer or two would admit that the diary can overstate listening due to the “line”. You can also argue, convincingly, that the diary misses listening, especially short listening sessions that do appear in PPM.
Based on quotes from Rich Tunkel, Nielsen Audio Managing Director, Nielsen is also expecting better representation from younger demos and minority groups. That’s possible and if it happens, it means a reduction in weighting which could mean less “bounce” in the estimates. I can accept that up front, but with OTA radio listening on the decline, will a “radio diary”, even in an online format, make much of a difference?
If the “mSurvey” test shows slightly lower listening than the paper diary, say 5 to 10 percent, I expect Nielsen will forge ahead claiming the results are closer to PPM. If the test results are significantly lower than the paper diary, we’ll see a real fight over it assuming Nielsen wants to move forward.
While I did not attend the webinar (didn’t receive an invitation), the trade press coverage mentioned that the initial test included all types of audio (AM/FM, streaming, satellite, podcasts, etc.). The next test will include only what Nielsen claims to measure. I think that’s a mistake and after attending the Barrett News Media Summit in Washington last week and hearing news/talk programmers say they’re trying to be “everywhere”, Nielsen should, at a minimum, allow the diary to include any audio that a respondent hears. Admittedly, the processing system can’t handle it today, but why not set a goal? And yes, that will require investment and prioritization on Nielsen’s part. Private equity-run companies do that all the time, don’t they? In the meantime, which could mean the next decade, diary subscribers could use the online diary review system to get a better idea of how people in their markets are using audio.
One other angle you have to understand: this must be a cost reduction move for Nielsen. The radio industry has enough trouble affording the Nielsen service today and isn’t likely to accept more cost increases. Nielsen has already done their share of cost-cutting as those of us who worked there hear about personnel departures on a regular basis. While some companies are “onshoring”, Nielsen continues to “offshore” to Mexico and India. As many radio operators know, at some point, there is nothing left to cut. The online system will cost less than the paper diary allowing Nielsen to save money. Unlike some retailers, don’t expect Nielsen to “pass the savings on to you”.
Let’s see what comes of the EScreener and the mSurvey. Robin Gentry was quoted in the trade press, and she’s a top-notch survey methodologist we hired at Arbitron a long time ago. She will report the results honestly, at least to the internal powers-that-be. By the way, the “Robin 87.5” sample entry in the diary instructions was named for her. I trust her.
If you’re in a diary market, sit back and wait to see what Nielsen reports, but understand what goes into the process and how Nielsen will appraise the results. The old saying always rings true: “When they say it’s not about the money, it’s about the money.”
Let’s meet again next week.
