The Industry According To….Larry Rosin, Edison Research

Thank you for checking out ‘The Industry According To’. This series runs each Tuesday, and features radio and record industry executives, managers, programmers, talent, artists, and professionals from all areas of the business world. To be considered as a future guest, email me at keithblackboxgroup@gmail.com.

Today we hear from one of the smartest researchers the music and media industry has ever had, Larry Rosin. Larry co-founded Edison Research in 1994. The company grew to be one of the most respected firms in the world. Even if you don’t know it, you’ve heard about Edison’s work through political exit polling, or via ground-breaking industry studies like “The Infinite Dial” or “Share of Ear.”

Some of you may have been lucky enough to be in the room when Larry or a member of his team presented research findings on your brand. If so, you know Larry doesn’t pull punches. He’s a truth teller, whether you want to hear it or not.

So, let’s dive in.

What the Data Has Been Saying

Keith: The typical scenario: Brand A fields a research test and then acts on some of the action steps and ignores others. Has there been a key finding over the years that Radio has typically ignored, at its own peril?

Larry: What first comes to mind here is from long ago. We would ask in surveys: “Do you want to hear the name of the song and the artists’ name for every song?” And respondents overwhelmingly said yes. But clients would say: “They might say that but they don’t really mean it.”

“Do you want contests?” Overwhelmingly people would say they don’t care about contests. But PDs would say: “They might say that but they don’t mean it.”

“Do you like when the DJ talks over the beginning or end of the song?” Overwhelming no, and yes again: “They might say that…”

So I met with the team that would start up WMMO in Orlando. They dared me to consider new things. I told them about my frustrations and they said: “Why don’t we actually listen to what people are saying?” That station went number one within weeks. And sustainably so.

So those would be some examples. At the same time, I will counter everything I just said by mentioning that radio executives probably follow research too closely at times as well. Not everything can be researched – part of all creative endeavors is magic. And you just can’t research magic.

Everyone Lies

Keith: Research is often blamed when results don’t meet expectations. “We got a bad test.” But it’s also true that people lie. Whether someone is asked about who they’re going to vote for or how they feel about a morning show or a song, some participants have no trouble lying about answers or opinions. How do we combat against that?

Larry: We look at this issue in quite a number of ways. I really think there is very little “lying” on surveys. Especially in a low-interest/low-stakes area like radio. The far bigger issue is fraud in online research. We employ massive efforts to eliminate fraudulent responses. Let me just say if your research vendor is not employing both up-front fraud checks on their research samples and then extensive checking on the results, you should be at least somewhat skeptical of what you are getting.

The One Point

Keith: A perceptual study will bring countless data points ranging from Top-of-Mind Awareness to Net Promoter Score. What data point is most important in telling you a brand is on the brink of collapse and one that is nearly bullet-proof?

Larry: There is no one number. But even in a PPM market there is nothing more important than top-of-mind awareness. This is really true for any brand in any category. If people don’t have you at the ‘unaided recall’ level, it is very hard for them to affirmatively choose to listen to you. No station can just depend on winning through ‘scanning’. You need people to choose your brand. If they don’t have you at the top of the consideration set, they are way less likely to listen.

Music At Radio

Keith: Music used to be the key driver of relevancy. Without such command over the music anymore though, what role does music really play in the lives of the average radio consumer?

Larry: When you do research for any American music radio station, no matter how much personality it has, music is simply always the key decision factor in choosing that station. It is no less important today than it was when the pioneers of radio research were helping guide radio stations into formats in the 1960s and 1970s. This leads to the tricky situation “radio” finds itself in.

For every individual station, the short-term ratings-maximizing strategy is almost always just to play more music. Yet, for “radio” to compete with streaming music services, the talent, personality and community involvement are what make the difference. At some point radio’s leadership has to essentially make the decision to defy the research and take a longer-term perspective. But telling people to do the wrong thing for the short term because it’s the right thing for the long term…is really, really hard.

Music Testing

Keith: The traditional music testing model was built long ago. Is that approach — short hooks followed by making an immediate emotional judgment from a few options— still measuring music the right way? Or do you see a better model emerging?

Larry: For now, this is still the best thing we have. I am very optimistic that some of the ‘big data’ that is now available will yield actionable music data soon. While streaming is not a high-switching environment as compared to in-car, stations now know when someone tunes out of their streams during a song (of course they don’t necessarily know why).

The information emerging from Xperi/DTS Autostage is also promising over the long haul. And while no one has yet shown me an AI music research solution that makes sense to me, we have experimented with putting all of our data into a model and are seeing how it could help guide radio stations’ music selections. There is a lot going on. Stations need to make the smartest music decisions they can but one library test every other year is barely better than no such research at all.

We’re #1

Keith: Positioning statements have historically been viewed as one of the most important parts of brand strategy. “The Most Non-Stop Music.” #1 For Hit Music.” “Classic Rock That Really Rocks.” How important are positioning statements for radio stations in 2026.

Larry: I think they are as important as ever. My complaint is that they are so often lacking in inspiration.  When I hear: “A refreshing variety for your workday” and the such, part of my soul dies. I mean that is technically fine but just so uninspired. It lacks any cleverness or something that anyone would ever repeat. People DO need to know what to expect. I just wish radio executives would dare to try to say things in a newer and more memorable fashion. 

The Younger Demos

Keith: Radio has spent two decades talking about getting younger. Meanwhile, Nielsen says the pool of younger listeners continues to shrink. Is “youth” the real issue radio should be trying to solve or is it something else? If “youth” is the issue, what’s your solution?

Larry: I wish I could be more optimistic on this note but it’s very hard to be. Our “Share of Ear” study shows that while there is still sizeable reach for radio on a daily basis among younger people, most of it is in the car and short in terms of span. The days of kids coming home from school and doing their homework to the radio, or listening for long spans at get-togethers, etc., are really gone and unlikely to return. Of course very few radio stations are even trying to get young listeners directly so you reap what you sow. 

Passion For Radio

Keith: There isn’t an executive or programmer who won’t acknowledge the importance of P1s. However, today’s definition of “heavies” (P1s) is defined as listening to as little as one quarter-hour per-day. Is that really showing passion and have you seen a general decline in audience passion for radio?

Larry: Well P1s are simply those who listen to your radio station more than any other radio station. One can certainly employ higher thresholds of listening to determine who is important to your brand. But the crux of this question is the reality that radio TSL has been declining, at different rates but consistently, for over 40 years. The peak was in the early 80s, if one looks at Nielsen (then Arbitron) data.

This isn’t at all an indictment of radio, it’s just that competition was scant until MTV and even CDs came along. Now of course consumers have so many more choices. But radio stations, especially those with personality (and personalities) still have tons of passionate fans, who must never be neglected or forgotten.  They are the key to your business and of course will patronize your advertisers’ businesses as well.

A Missing Question

Keith: Is there an important question radio hasn’t been asking in research that the industry should be asking?

Larry: I do ask myself a lot about the interpretation of research. For most program directors and programming executives, what matters most is knowing at any given moment they are doing the thing that minimizes tune-out at that moment. So we bunch together long stop sets because then there are fewer stop-starts to trigger tune-out. And we never dare play an untested song or a marginal song. It’s safer to play something that we know ‘works’.

While all that makes endless sense and is the right thing to do for the moment, is it the right thing to do overall? Have we created stations that maybe people are less likely to tune out of, but also less like to tune into? 

The Future

Keith: Looking ahead five years, what’s the biggest change you see coming that the audio industry isn’t prepared for or is in denial over?

Larry: I stay out of the future-prediction business. While I know no one really goes back to check predictions, they are almost always wrong. I don’t want to add to that pile. My colleagues and I create the data that shows what things look like today as compared to yesterday. Let others draw the lines out into the future.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Keith: If there’s an uncomfortable truth the music and radio industry needs to hear, what is it?

Larry: I think both industries have a good sense of what is going on in these times of endless change. From my selfish perspective, both should industries remember that when one points out a problem, that doesn’t mean they are the problem. You can’t start fixing the problems until you face up to the mere existence of the problem. One goes to industry conferences and there is just such an enforced ‘happy talk’ quotient. Especially at radio conferences, there are no mainstream journalists there who will pounce on an honest discussion of challenges. So face the challenges in forums such as those.

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